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Bitcoin forecast: bullish structure cracks at the seams, possible drop below $21,000

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Bitcoin technical analysis results

Bitcoin technical analysis results show that bitcoin (BTC) has been bearish since it reached this year’s high of $25,250 (Feb. 25). There are three factors to support this statement.

First, BTC temporarily deviated above the $23,800 resistance area (red circle). Such deviations are considered bearish signals and more often than not lead to a bearish trend reversal.

Second, strong bearish divergence signals in the daily RSI (green line) preceded this deviation. The RSI is now below 50, which is also considered a bearish sign.

Finally, the BTC made a bearish break of the ascending support line, which has been on the chart since the beginning of this year. This might indicate that the upside phase is over.

If the decline continues, the nearest support comes in at $20,850 (the Fibo level of 0.5 retracement and horizontal support). This is the most likely scenario. Meanwhile, a recovery of the price above $23,800 resistance will cancel the bearish outlook on BTC and take the currency to the highs around $27,000.

Bitcoin forecast – BTCD index stumbles over resistance

The Bitcoin Dominance Index made a bullish breakout from an ascending parallel channel on January 17. Eight days later, it marked a high of 44.79%, but ran into resistance in the form of the 0.618 Fibo resistance level, bounced off it, and has been declining ever since. BTCD is now barely clinging to the channel resistance line.

A bounce of the BTCD and a break-up of the Fibo level at 0.618 might take it up to 48.50%. If there is a pullback inside the channel, the most probable forecast is a fall to the channel support line at 41%.

BTCD and BTC rate show almost perfect correlation (blue color). It means that the growth of one entails the growth of the other, and vice versa. Accordingly, the BTCD decline forecast confirms the bearish scenario for bitcoin.

Thus, the most likely scenario for BTC is a drawdown towards the support area of $20,850. A close above $23,800 would cancel the bearish forecast and could give a boost towards $27,000.

Earlier we reported that the Polygon MATIC rate lost 9% for the day.

Cryptocurrency

Cryptotraders lost more than $250,000,000 in liquidations after Fed rate hike

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Crypto traders lost

Cryptotraders had a tough day: almost 68,000 positions were liquidated on exchanges in the last 24 hours, and the total volume of liquidations exceeded $257,000,000. All this happened against the news of the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike and another Securities and Exchange Commission regulatory action against cryptocurrencies.

Cryptotraders lost $132,000,000 in BTC

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple were the leaders in the number of forcibly closed positions. BTC liquidations totaled almost $132,000,000; Ethereum traders lost $51,000,000. XRP positions accounted for about $8,000,000 of liquidations. Bitmex exchange executed the largest order of $7.39,000,000.

Cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined 2% in the last 24 hours, but is still above the $1 trillion mark.

The weekly CoinShares report also recorded a massive outflow of funds for six consecutive weeks. During that period, nearly $500,000,000 was withdrawn from cryptocurrency platforms, with $113,000,000 coming from bitcoin. Analysts at the company believe the outflow is due to liquidity needs during the banking crisis rather than a negative outlook. The company mentions that a similar scenario was seen in March 2020 amid a COVID-19-induced panic.

Regulators continue to hunt the cryptobusiness

Another reason for the increased volatility in the market has been harsh action from U.S. regulators. Last night it became known that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued cryptomagnate Justin Sun, accusing him of fraud and market manipulation.

The SEC also issued a notice of wrongdoing against Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange. The securities regulator sued Coinbase Global Inc, for some of the products it offers.

We previously reported that Bitcoin (BTC) tests $28,000, but onchain metrics urge caution.

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Binance was caught circumventing KYC to register Chinese clients

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Binance China customer registrations

Employees of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance help clients from China to bypass compliance and verification. CNBC writes about it, citing hundreds of corporate emails from exchange employees on Discord and Telegram. It is reported that Binance has helped over 200,000 users register, bypassing its own security system. One case describes correspondence between a user from China and a Binance employee.

The employee under the pseudonym yaya.z suggested the user from China turn on a VPN, register as a Taiwanese resident and then return the location to China. Binance employees also advise customers not to use VPN services from the U.S., Hong Kong and Singapore, because the exchange does not provide services in those regions, writes CNBC. At the same time, Binance freely processes applications from U.S. email providers like Gmail or Outlook for registration.

The exchange even offers specialized mobile applications for customers from China. A CNBC reporter could download a special mobile application from Binance via email. At the same time, no VPN was needed to download the app, as the download was conducted through the domain of binance[.]com. It is also alleged that the exchange still verifies users with Chinese phone numbers.

An exchange spokesperson denied the existence of a special Chinese version of the mobile application. The exchange also added that it has improved the system to identify users from banned regions. CNBC notes that after providing evidence, Binance removed employee messages from corporate chats to circumvent KYC.

We previously reported that the Ethereum (ETH) price crossed the $1,800 mark, opening the way to $2,000.

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Why cryptoanalysts expect bitcoin to fall

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cryptoanalysts expect bitcoin to fall

The market remains in a bearish trend and bitcoin (BTC) will resume its fall and test $16,000. There are two reasons:

  • Altcoins are near serious resistance;

  • The BUSD and USDC stablecoins are manipulating the market.

The first statement can be confirmed or disproved by a technical analysis of the cryptocurrency market, but there is not enough additional information for the second.

The market capitalization of altcoins (ALTCAP) does hold nearly $605 billion of resistance. Although ALTCAP has risen above it several times, it didn’t develop above this area.

However, the daily RSI has broken through the bearish divergence trendline (green line). Such a breakout often precedes significant reversals into a bullish trendline. As a result, ALTCAP will move higher towards the $680B resistance area. If not, ALTCAP could fall back to the $518B support area.

There are also those who argue that bitcoin will test the $10000-$11000 area because there is a CME price gap that needs to be filled. The gap refers to the difference between the closing price of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Friday and the opening price on the following Monday.

We previously reported that Hong Kong has allocated another $50,000,000 to the crypto industry.

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