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Bitcoin news before Fed meeting — what trader needs to know?

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Bitcoin started the new week with a fall. Quotes are testing the strength of the 21,900 level, which served as support. Whether it will hold or not is doubtful, because of the Fed meeting this week, which is expected to raise interest rates.

Fed meeting and bitcoin — what to expect? Technically, the major cryptocurrency has two possible scenarios right now. The first is a recovery if the support of 21,900 holds. The target remains at the level of $25,000 per coin. The second is a return to the 18,900 — 21,900 range and a decline towards its support.

Bitcoin price and Fed meeting — be careful, or what is the connection?

What effect will the Fed meeting have on bitcoin prices? On July 27, the Fed is expected to decide on interest rates. Not only will the fact of raising will matter, but also the rhetoric regarding inflation and the central banks’ further plans for monetary policy.

The cryptocurrency market, as we have seen before, does not like tight monetary policy, and expensive money in a collapse of the crypto market will not help the demand for digital assets. And while technical benchmarks are important and described above, the encouraging predictions of analyst PlanB, creator of his own method for analyzing the crypto market, is worthy of interest.

The analyst noted that the speed at which bitcoin bounced back from its 200-week moving average this month could be one of the drivers missing from similar bearish phases.

Fed meeting and bitcoin: Small buyers take the lead

A recent study by crypto analytics firm Arcane Research noted that cumulative institutional sales reached more than 236,000 BTC during the May 12 Terra/LUNA crash.

Meanwhile, data from another analytics platform, Glassnode, measures that the number of market participants owning amounts of 1 BTC or less has grown faster than ever in the total BTC supply. This trend accelerated sharply in 2022.

Fed meeting: Falling amount of crypto assets under management

While the crypto market rebounded unabashedly last week, the total value of global crypto assets under management (AUM) fell to $30.2 billion last week. And that’s despite a weekly inflow of $30 million. Bitcoin has seen a significant drop in the value of BTC assets under management during the current crypto-winter period.

A CoinShares report shows that international digital asset managers currently hold $19.3 billion in BTC assets. In November 2021, asset management companies owned more than $40 billion in bitcoin assets.

Investment products associated with other crypto-assets, such as Ethereum, BNB and Litecoin, have also run into serious problems over the past eight months.

Regarding annual performance, Ethereum investment products suffered the most. ETH has experienced a record $316 million in outflows since the beginning of 2022.

BNB came in second with an outflow of $22 million. Because of the latest price drop, the total value of ETH’s global assets under management is now about $7 billion, down from nearly $20 billion in November 2021.

Will the Fed regulate Bitcoin: what’s happening to liquidity in the market

A recent weekly CoinShares report noted that inflows into digital assets last week totaled $27 million, compared with a late-week transaction report that adjusted inflows from $12 million to $343 million the previous week. This was the largest inflow for the week since November 2021.

Current inflows were $394 million and total assets under management (AuM) returned to early June 2022 levels of $30 billion. Bitcoin inflows last week were $16 million, with the previous week’s inflows adjusted to $206 million, the largest inflow in a week since May 2022.

The research firm emphasized that Switzerland accounted for most of the recent weekly inflows. Germany and the U.S. accounted for inflows of $8 million and $9 million, respectively.


Bitcoin onchain metric are stronger than ever

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bitcoin onchain metrics

Galaxy Digital analysts published a report that examined key bitcoins onchain metrics (BTC), compared the world’s main cryptocurrency to other asset classes and explained what events could be the catalyst for the coming price rally. The company is confident that the bulls have plenty of reasons to remain optimistic – even despite difficult macroeconomic conditions.

BTC has become the best performing asset of 2023

Bitcoin is the best performing asset in 2023 compared to a lot of stocks, fixed income securities, indices, and commodities. It shows the best or some of the best performance over various time horizons (except for 1 year), and it looks even stronger over the long haul.

In addition, bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 stock indices has begun to decline, while its correlation with gold, which is considered a classic haven asset, has risen sharply. This happened against the backdrop of the crisis that engulfed U.S. banks and led to the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate and Signature.

Given the nature of the current crisis, in which the system of partial bank reserves is tested for strength, the fundamental characteristics of the BTC favorably distinguish it from traditional assets.

Accumulation, not driving price rally speculation

A number of key market indicators indicate that bitcoin’s price rally is driven by the accumulation of coins on the spot, not speculation in the derivatives market. The futures funding indicator has remained virtually unchanged since the beginning of 2023 – meaning that the market is net-neutral regarding speculative positioning. The same can be said about volume and open interest in the CME.

The total number of addresses with non-zero balances also continues to grow rapidly, with more than 45 million wallets holding BTC today. At the same time, most of them have never spent coins, but only received new ones.

The approaching halving will affect the level of inflation in the BTC network

The next bitcoin halving will occur in April 2024 and will cause the network’s inflation rate to fall below 1%. The halving events of 2012, 2016 and 2020 catalyzed a price rally and reached a new all-time high as investor demand for BTC quickly exceeded the declining supply level.

This event will put bitcoin among the most stable assets and make it less susceptible to inflation than gold and silver.

Early we reported that Whales are interested in Litecoin, again.

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Whales are interested in Litecoin, again: will it help LTC price return to the $100 mark

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Litecoin price forecast

In February, Litecoin, albeit briefly, returned to the $100 level for the first time since the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May 2022. In early March, the price of the asset dipped below the $70 mark again. But that didn’t seem to hinder the whales’ plans, as large holders actively bought LTC during the correction.

Whale activity continues to rise

According to analyst firm IntoTheBlock, the average LTC transaction size increased more than 600% in March 2023, from $13,355 to $81,022.

The increase in average transaction size as the price pulls back signals an influx of large investors looking to buy back the decline in the asset. Given the financial strength of the whales, this could push LTC to another rally in the coming weeks.

Litecoin price forecast – could reach the $110 mark

Santiment’s Market to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) shows that investors who bought Litecoin in the last 30 days made a 10% profit. According to historical MVRV readings, LTC holders have often captured profits of around 20%. This means that the $100 level is likely to be the next resistance zone.

If the price of the asset can combine above $100, the coin may continue its upward movement towards $115. However, bears can reverse the situation if the LTC falls below $80. With further declines, LTC could fall back below $70.

Early we reported that China intends to work with crypto-businesses through Hong Kong.

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China intends to work with crypto-businesses through Hong Kong

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Banking for crypto-businesses

Hong Kong subsidiaries of major Chinese banks began to provide services for local cryptocurrency firms involved in projects related to Bitcoin, altcoins and various startups. It was reported by Bloomberg, citing sources in the region.

It is alleged that the local branches of Bank of Communications, Bank of China and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank have begun, or are working to provide banking services to crypto-businesses. According to the publication, a representative of an unnamed Chinese bank even visited the office of a crypto firm to promote the services of the financial institution. A top manager of an unnamed large Chinese bank said in a media commentary that banks promote their services in Hong Kong due to the tacit approval of Beijing. The interest in the business is also due to the uncertainty around lending to the local market, they said.

Loyal attitude to the market of cryptocurrencies in Hong Kong has already “bounced back” to local investors with considerable losses. According to calculations by local law enforcement agencies, the region lost over $200 million in 2022 alone. 2,336 cases of crypto-fraud were registered in Hong Kong in 2022.

However, Chinese authorities’ interest is not limited to the crypto market. In early March, the South China Morning Post reported that China intends to stimulate the digitalization of the economy in Hong Kong with its own currency. The authorities are offering citizens a 20% discount for making payments in digital yuan. At the same time, the promotion is valid only for Hong Kong citizens and only in the southern technology center of Shenzhen (connecting China and Hong Kong).

Recall that in the fall of 2022, Hong Kong authorities announced plans to develop a cryptocurrency market in the region. According to the Hong Kong government’s website, the authorities will work with local regulators to create “favorable conditions” for developing the local cryptocurrency industry.

Early we reported that Cryptotraders lost more than $250,000,000 in liquidations after Fed rate hike.

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