Over 80% of the newly listed cryptocurrencies on Binance, the world’s largest digital asset exchange by trading volume, have declined in value.

In the past six months, these tokens have plunged in value since listing on the exchange, raising concerns for investors seeking out the latest cryptocurrencies.

Most New Binance Token Listings Trading in Red

According to a May 17 post by pseudonymous crypto researcher Flow on X, only five of the 31 tokens analyzed have appreciated in value: the meme coin (MEME), the Ordi token (ORDI), Solana-based Jupiter (JUP), Jito (JTO), and Dogwifhat (WIF).

Every one is talking about the VC + CEX cartel where teams are pushed to launch at the highest possible FDV on tier-1 CEX and provide exit liquidity for VC and insiders

The result: New coins are not great investment anymore

But how real is this? I crunched the number for you 👇

— flow (@tradetheflow_) May 17, 2024

Despite lacking venture capitalist (VC) backing, the Ordi token was the most profitable, with an increase of over 261% since its launch. The controversial meme coin Dogwifhat followed in second place, surging more than 117%.

Flow noted that top-tier venture capitalists back most new Binance listings and launch at inflated valuations. The average fully diluted valuation (FDV) on the Binance listing date exceeds $4.2 billion, with some tokens reaching over $11 billion. Often, these projects lack real users or a strong community.

According to Flow, if investors had made equal investments in each of the new Binance listings over the past six months, their portfolio would have declined by over 18%. This, Flow adds, suggests that many tokens launching on Binance are not viable investment vehicles, as their upside potential is already exhausted. Instead, they are exit liquidity for insiders who exploit retail investors’ limited access to early investment opportunities.

Flow also criticized the current market dynamics, citing economist Alex Kruger’s earlier observations on X. Kruger noted that many tokens are designed to pump and then dump due to short vesting schedules, fake metrics, and a focus on hype rather than user acquisition.

New Token Launches Causing Market Harm

According to crypto researcher Flow, the current token launch meta is damaging to the crypto market, and a new approach to token launches is needed. Releasing tokens at high, fully diluted valuations (FDVs) leads to value erosion and minimal market interest, ultimately causing the token to plummet. He added that this approach not only harms the token but also discredits the entire crypto industry.

He highlighted an earlier post by Crypto_McKenna, who criticized the practice of pushing protocols to launch at high FDVs to benefit pre-seed and seed investors. McKenna noted that launching at a lower FDV allows secondary market traders to profit from repricing and helps generate momentum and interest.

Bitcoin’s most recent run continued in the past 24 hours as the asset’s price climbed to its highest price in over a month at just over $67,400 yesterday.

Ethereum has also joined the party at last, having surged past the coveted resistance line of $3,000 and jumping above $3,100.

BTC Sees 5-Week Peak

Bitcoin suffered a lot at the start of May as it dumped to a multi-month low of under $57,000. It began to recover some ground in the following week when it soared past $65,000 on May 6 but quickly reversed its trajectory and saw its price dropping to under $61,000 on May 10.

The bulls intercepted the move at this point and didn’t allow any further declines. Just the opposite, BTC maintained its ground last weekend and started climbing on Monday to just over $63,000. Another brief correction came on Tuesday to $61,200, but the lowering inflation rates in the US, which were announced on Wednesday, sent the cryptocurrency flying.

In a matter of hours, BTC skyrocketed by several grand and jumped past $66,000. Although there was another brief retracement, the growing Bitcoin ETF inflows meant more price gains for the underlying asset, which charted a 5-week high of over $67,400 yesterday.

Despite losing some ground since then, BTC still trades around $67,000 now. Its market cap has increased to $1.320 trillion on CG, but its dominance over the alts is slightly down to 51.6%.

ETH Goes Beyond $3.1K

The second-largest cryptocurrency was among those who trailed behind in terms of gains, as reported earlier and was losing ground to BTC. This was because ETH couldn’t reclaim decisively $3,000 despite several challenges in the past few weeks.

However, that resistance level finally gave in yesterday, which allowed Ether to shoot up above $3,100 for the first time in over a week.

Most other larger-cap alts are also in the green, with gains of around 1-2%. In contrast, Toncoin has retraced by more than 3%, and so has HEAR, which is down by 4%.

The total crypto market cap has added around $20 billion overnight and is now at $2.560 trillion on CG.

Bitcoin’s price performances for the past ten years or so have been dominated by bear and bull cycles.

In general, the BTC halving is regarded as the catalyst for the start of the bull market, while the last two years ahead of each such event are dictated by the bears.

Current Cycle

However, this hasn’t been the case during the ongoing run, which started in the middle of 2023 and was fueled initially by hype surrounding the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the States. Once those products became a reality in early 2024, the asset broke its 2021 all-time high and charted a new one of almost $74,000. This was the first time a new peak was registered ahead of a halving.

The reasoning behind this is that once those products saw the light of day, this meant that BTC is now a legitimate investment asset since the companies that launched them are some of the largest in the world, including BlackRock and Fidelity.

The inflows skyrocketed in the first few months, and even though the demand has somewhat flattened in the past several weeks, BTC’s price went on a massive run and still stands in a range between $60,000 and $70,000.

Additionally, the US Federal Reserve is rumored to start lowering the interest rates later this year, which is typically regarded as a bullish development for riskier assets like BTC and other cryptocurrencies.

Last but not least, the halving indeed took place a month ago. While most experts claim that the effects of each block reward slashing are diminishing in time, the fact of the matter is that the production of new BTC is declining and is now down to around 450 BTC per day. A lot less than the average accumulation rate by ETFs, whales, and retail investors.

When Will it End?

Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, asserted that BTC is currently in the middle of its ongoing bull cycle. He outlined a chart showing that bitcoin’s actual market cap is “growing faster than its realized cap,” which is a variation of the market cap that values each UTXO at the price it was last moved.

Such a trend typically lasts two years and would mean that the ongoing bull run will end within the next 11 months or so.

#Bitcoin is in the middle of the bull cycle.

Its market cap is growing faster than its realized cap, a trend that typically lasts around two years.

If this pattern continues, the bull cycle might end by April 2025. pic.twitter.com/o4k8B1Rkhv

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 17, 2024