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Crash to $6 or Surge to $8: Which Comes First for Polkadot? (DOT Price Analysis)

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Polkadot’s recent price action has been characterized by subdued movement and minimal volatility following a swift decline toward the $6 level. However, the cryptocurrency finds itself at a crucial juncture, with a potential breakout poised to determine its next direction.

Polkadot Price Analysis: Technicals

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

A thorough analysis of the daily chart reveals a period of consolidation around the $6 mark, marked by low volatility and indecision in the market. This suggests a looming battle between buyers and sellers, hinting at an impending significant movement.

Despite this uncertainty, the Polkadot price is currently supported by a strong and decisive range, anchored by the significant 200-day moving average at $6.93 and the critical support level of the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($6.7). This robust support zone is bolstered by substantial demand and has the potential to thwart further downward pressure, potentially propelling the price toward the significant resistance zone around $9.

dot_price_analysis_chart_2004241
Source: TradingView

The 4-Hour Chart

A detailed examination of the 4-hour timeframe reveals a rapid descent toward the $6 level, where the price encountered significant demand, leading to a slight reversal. However, the subsequent sideways consolidation phase has seen minimal volatility and a lack of decisive momentum.

Nevertheless, the price has formed a sideways triangle pattern, with a breakout above its upper boundary indicating a continuation of the bullish trend.

Currently, DOT teeters on the brink of breaking above this triangle pattern. If it happens, Polkadot is expected to sustain its upward trajectory, with potential targets lying within the price range defined by the 0.5 ($7.4) and 0.618 ($7.8) Fibonacci levels.

Conversely, a break below the lower boundary of the triangle pattern could signal a continuation of the bearish retracement toward the $6 level.

dot_price_analysis_chart_2004242
Source: TradingView

Sentiment Analysis

By Shayan

The significant impact of the perpetual futures market on Polkadot’s price dynamics cannot be overstated. Many short-term price movements, particularly those following periods of consolidation, are driven by liquidations within the futures market. Therefore, understanding where liquidity is most concentrated can offer valuable insights.

The Binance DOT/USDT liquidation heatmap provides a visual representation of price levels where large-scale liquidation events are likely to occur. Those highlighted in yellow on the chart signal the potential for a cascade of liquidations.

As illustrated in the chart, the $7 and $6 price zones are characterized by substantial liquidity. Consequently, if the price embarks on an upward surge toward the $7 threshold, it may trigger a significant liquidation cascade, resulting in heightened volatility and a notable short-term decline. Conversely, should the market retreat towards the $6 level, a rapid surge could ensue due to a cascade of long liquidations, leading to an immediate rebound.

These levels serve as crucial reference points in the short term and have the potential to shape the market trend in the weeks ahead.

binance_dot_usdt_liquidation_heatmap_2004241
Source: Coinglass
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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Bitcoin Price Up 3% as New BRC20 Token 99Bitcoins Raises $1M in ICO

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Bitcoin has rallied almost 3% over the past 24 hours, showing signs of recovery from its recent dip. Just two days ago, BTC dropped below the $60,000 mark, reaching as low as $56,500, causing some concern across the market. However, signs of a steady recovery are apparent as we move forward into the post-halving pattern.

Meanwhile, BRC20 tokens are gaining more widespread attention as a way to increase Bitcoin’s utility and send the price soaring again. The new BRC20 token, 99Bitcoins Token, has just raised over $1 million in its presale as its upcoming airdrop draws near.

Experts Point to Previous Post-Halving Bitcoin Price Patterns

Although Bitcoin has fallen below the important support level of $59,000, it seems to be following a similar pattern to other Halving events. Normally, Bitcoin tends to dip slightly before rallying around and powering up to new heights.

Some experts have pointed to this as an essential correction for the price to increase steadily rather than fluctuate wildly.

With movements over the past 24 hours showing a positive market sentiment, the Crypto Fear & Greed indicator for Bitcoin has moved from fear to neutral. This is a sign that some of the more skittish investors are being reassured by the slight increase in the price of BTC.

Meanwhile, more bullish investors are looking to the new BRC20 token standard for extra exposure to Bitcoin price movements and the new utility it brings to the Bitcoin ecosystem.

BRC20 Standard Opens up a New Narrative for 2024

The launch of ERC20 tokens was a pivotal moment in crypto history, starting the rise of Ethereum as a possible contender to lead the crypto market. While Bitcoin has never lost its hold over the market, it certainly ceded some ground to the Ethereum ecosystem with its wide range of applications and new tokens born from the development of the ERC20 standard.

However, last year saw the arrival of the BRC20 token standard opening Bitcoin up to a variety of new applications. We’ve seen Bitcoin’s market dominance grow since the BRC20 token standard was launched last year.

Now that BRC20 is maturing, we’re starting to see many investors pour into the BRC20 space, enjoying the exposure to the price of Bitcoin at a low entry point while being able to create fungible tokens from fractions of Bitcoins.

One new BRC20 token, 99Bitcoins Token, has been attracting the attention of investors and experts across the market with an exciting presale and upcoming Bitcoin airdrop.

99Bitcoins Token Races Past the $1 Million Mark

Since its inception in 2013, 99Bitcoins has gained a reputation for providing unbiased and factual information about Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, including its popular free Bitcoin Crash Course.

Now, 99Bitcoins aims to attract newcomers with its new Learn-to-Earn $99BTC token. The learning platform rewards users with tokens as they engage with educational content, fostering crypto literacy in a transparent and accessible manner. The token is being launched on the Ethereum network but will bridge over to the BRC20 token standard after the presale ends.

The presale has already raised over $1 million and the upcoming $99,999 $BTC airdrop has attracted almost 5,000 entries. Currently priced at just $0.00103, this price is set to go up in a few days. With such an established reputation and the need for crypto education across the entire space, this presale is one to watch.

Visit 99Bitcoins Token Presale

Disclaimer: The above article is sponsored content; it’s written by a third party. CryptoPotato doesn’t endorse or assume responsibility for the content, advertising, products, quality, accuracy, or other materials on this page. Nothing in it should be construed as financial advice. Readers are strongly advised to verify the information independently and carefully before engaging with any company or project mentioned and do their own research. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries a risk of capital loss, and readers are also advised to consult a professional before making any decisions that may or may not be based on the above-sponsored content.

Readers are also advised to read CryptoPotato’s full disclaimer.

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BTC Price Surges Above $59K as Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Ease Up

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Days after suffering devastating losses that dragged its price to $56,500, bitcoin rebounded on Thursday and during the early hours of Friday. This coincided with a slowdown in outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US compared to the previous day’s record outflows.

According to the latest data compiled by SoSoValue, spot bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $34.4 million on May 2nd.

Bitcoin ETFs Experience Slower Outflows

BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, the second and third-largest BTC funds by total net assets, had no new flows on Thursday. A similar trend was seen across Bitwise’s BITB, VanEck’s HODL, and WisdomTree’s BTCW which recorded no flow.

However, Bloomberg’s prominent ETF analyst James Seyffart had previously noted that having days of zero inflows is completely normal and shouldn’t be misinterpreted as a failure of the products themselves.

Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC, which has been notoriously experiencing outflows, was the only ETF to see a net outflow on Thursday, totaling $55 million, as per SoSoValue.

On the other hand, Ark Invest’s ARKB led daily net inflows added 13 million. Other spot bitcoin ETFs from Franklin Templeton’s EZBC, Valkyrie’s BRRR, and Invesco and Galaxy Digital’s BTCO recorded $3 million, $2 million, and $1 million in inflows respectively, thereby totaling $6 million combined.

This comes a day after the market saw a record level of outflows for these investment vehicles, registering the largest ever at over $563 million. Fidelity’s FBTC, which had only started losing its grip last week, recorded $191 million in outflows from the fund, surpassing GBTC’s outflow.

May 1st also marked the first time BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a net daily outflow amidst the broader market drawdown that led bitcoin to slip to the lows of $56,500.

Bitcoin Recovery

The market appears to be recovering as bitcoin attracted a modest 3% gain over the past day that pushed its price above $59,300 after FOMC’s dovish stance. As noted by QCP Capital, Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed is not considering rate hikes and announced a reduction in Quantitative Tightening (QT) from $60 billion monthly to $25 billion during the FOMC meeting.

Similarly, in the QRA, the Treasury plans to maintain issuances for longer maturities unchanged, alleviating concerns about a surge in longer-term yields. This approach is expected to dampen the rally of the US dollar, which in turn, bodes well for risk assets such as bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

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Important Ripple v. SEC Lawsuit Update: Here’s How the Trial’s Going

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TL;DR

  • Ripple contests the SEC’s classification of the “Fox Declaration” as standard evidence, arguing it’s expert testimony, which affects the legal proceedings.
  • Predictions suggest a possible $100 million settlement in case, potentially impacting XRP’s value and the broader crypto market.

Ripple Strikes Back

The legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) escalated recently due to a disagreement on one key witness’ testimony. The two entities can not find common ground on a statement from Andrea Fox (known as the “Fox Declaration”).

The company initially argued that the testimony represented an unsolicited expert opinion, while the regulator described the process as “standard summary evidence in support of calculations for disgorgement.” 

The Commission also claimed that the “Fox Declaration” consists of information derived from documents generated by Ripple itself, including tax returns and financial statements, which can be useful for determining the case’s outcome.

Most recently, the firm filed a letter in further support of its initial request. It maintained that the SEC failed to show that the “Fox Declaration” is summary evidence rather than expert testimony. 

“Fox is an expert because she purports to use technical or other specialized knowledge to help the trier of fact to understand the evidence or to determine a fact in issue. She does not merely apply basic arithmetic to Ripple’s financial records, as the SEC contends.

Rather, she analyzes Ripple’s records, third-party evidence, and expert reports; draws inferences and conclusions about those documents; and calculates disgorgement, prejudgment interest, and discount amounts based on her analysis.”

The company went further, arguing that even if Andrea Fox could be classified as a summary witness (rather than an expert), the SEC failed to disclose her before the end of the discovery process.

Having that said, Ripple insisted that the testimony should not be taken into account when determining the case’s resolution. 

Is a Settlement on the Horizon?

Despite the start of the trial, it remains unclear when the Ripple v SEC case will be officially closed or whether the parties will shake hands on a mutual agreement. One person who predicted the second scenario is the American lawyerJeremy Hogan. He thinks the lawsuit may draw to an end this summer following a $100 million settlement.

“I’m saying that the Judge will order 0 disgorgement but throws the SEC a bone and orders Ripple to pay a $100 million penalty,” Hogan stated.

Recall that the watchdog sought a $2 billion fine on the company alleging XRP sales violations. The latter insisted that the penalty should not exceed $10 million.

The outcome of the case might trigger a substantial price rally on Ripple’s native token and the entire crypto market (in the event of a decisive victory for the firm). On the other hand, the sector could be negatively affected if the SEC emerges victorious.

Those willing to learn more about the specifics of the lengthy lawsuit and its impact on XRP, feel free to watch our dedicated video below:

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