The crypto market experienced another week of consolidation around the supposed “bottom”. The total capitalization index was at $999.28 billion at the beginning of the week. Then we saw growth to a local peak of $1.06 trillion (the index was again above $1 trillion for the first time in a month and a half). The index then declined to $959.1 billion by the end of the period under review. Thus, the final decrease in the total capitalization index was 4.02%. Against this background, we can try to make a crypto market forecast for 2022.
What will be the crypto market forecast this week? After breaking through the corridor of 20,000-22,000 for the first time in a long time, the bitcoin price returned to this corridor again during the previous week. The period we are considering started for bitcoin at 23,712. On the first day, a local high of 24,208 was reached. Then, until the end of the week, the rate was systematically falling to the level of 21 300. The final decline at the end of the period was 8.5%.
Etherium, during the past period, demonstrated slightly different dynamics. Starting from 1551, the rate of the asset did not go out of the corridor of 1640-1528 till the end of the period, dropping down to the level of 1457. The fall at the end of the week amounted to 6.06%.
Even though one of the largest public owners of Bitcoin – Tesla, sold a significant part of its accumulation, other owners, who bought at similar levels, continue to hold. According to analytical service Glassnode, there are now three main levels of buying within past cycles – about 20,000/30,000/40,000. And the level of 20,000 was formed quite recently, in the last few months. Such dynamics additionally confirm the psychological value of “round” figures and also indicate many buyers in the current market ready to redeem BTC at a price slump.
Crypto market forecast this week
After the rapid growth in the spot market, the dominance of call options remains equally high for both BTC and ETH. The level of open interest rose strongly due to block trades – call spreads and “butterflies” with an execution date at the end of this year. The current price levels showed a fairly large volume of accumulation; most of the negative events are already in the price; respectively, traders have an appetite for risk, and expectations for a more successful end of the year.
However, this cautious optimism is very different in its targets, if we compare the Bull Run period of last year. At that time, levels were actively traded several times higher than the current ones on the spot market. Now the target growth levels for BTC are 25,000-30,000, which is too far from last year’s highs. On the backdrop of this we can build a crypto market cap forecast.
Is a crypto bear market coming? The market is accumulating liquidity ahead of the Fed meeting this week, and is avoiding active directional choices until the decision is made, remaining cautiously optimistic. The next few months will be decisive regarding macro statistics and will allow for more accurate forecasting of funding conditions in global markets, which will add certainty and liquidity for future growth in cryptocurrency prices.
Coinbase holds 5% of all Bitcoin in existence: Data
Blockchain intelligence platform Arkham recently identified that crypto exchange Coinbase holds almost 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) in its wallets. The coins are worth more than $25 billion at current market prices for BTC.
According to Arkham, the exchange’s holdings amount to almost 5% of all existing Bitcoin. Arkham said that Coinbase holds a total of 947,755 BTC. At the moment, Bitcoin’s circulating supply is around 19,493,537, according to coin information website CoinGecko.
Arkham has now identified $25B of Coinbase Bitcoin reserves (~1M BTC) on chain.
This makes Coinbase the largest Bitcoin entity in the world on Arkham, with almost 5% of all BTC in existence – about as much as Satoshi Nakamoto. pic.twitter.com/7sDOczS7WT
— Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) September 22, 2023
Furthermore, Arkham also noted that it tagged and identified 36 million Bitcoin deposit and holding addresses used by the exchange. According to Arkham, Coinbase’s largest cold wallet holds around 10,000 BTC. Based on the exchange’s financial reports, the intelligence company believes that Coinbase has more Bitcoin that are not yet labeled and could not be identified.
While Coinbase holds over $25 billion in BTC in its wallets, the exchange only owns around 10,000 of all the Bitcoin it holds, which is worth roughly $200 million, according to recent data.
Meanwhile, community members expressed varying reactions to the news about the amount of Bitcoin the centralized exchange holds. Some believe it’s a sign to withdraw their BTC from exchanges, warning holders not to wait until exchanges start to halt withdrawals. Others say that since there are legitimate concerns over cold wallets, there’s no good way to store their assets.
When it comes to Bitcoin ownership by companies, business intelligence firm MicroStrategy still owns the most BTC. In earnings results posted on Aug. 1, the firm’s co-founder Michael Saylor declared that the company owns 152,800 BTC, worth over $4 billion at the time of writing.
Coinbase CEO warns against AI regulation, calls for decentralization
Brian Armstrong, the CEO of crypto exchange Coinbase, expressed his stance on artificial intelligence (AI) regulation in a recent post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
On Sept. 23, Armstrong explained that he believes that AI should not be regulated. According to the Coinbase CEO, the AI space needs to develop as soon as possible because of reasons such as national security. In addition, Armstrong also noted that despite the best intentions of regulators, regulation “has unintended consequences,” arguing that it kills innovation and competition.
Count me as someone who believes AI should not be regulated
We need to make progress on it as fast as possible for many reasons (including national security). And the track record on regulation is that it has unintended consequences and kills competition/innovation, despite best…
— Brian Armstrong ️ (@brian_armstrong) September 22, 2023
The Coinbase executive cited the internet as an example. Armstrong believes there was a “golden age of innovation” on the internet and software because it was not regulated. The Coinbase CEO suggested the same should be applied to AI technology.
Furthermore, Armstrong also presented an alternative to regulation in terms of protecting the AI space. According to the executive, it would be better to “decentralize it and open source it to let the cat out of the bag.”
Meanwhile, various jurisdictions across the globe have either started to regulate AI or express concerns about its potential effects. On Aug. 15, China’s provisional guidelines for AI activity and management came into effect. The regulations were published on July 10 and were a joint effort between six of the country’s government agencies. This is the first set of AI rules implemented within the country amid the recent AI boom.
In the United Kingdom, the competition regulator studied AI in order to identify its potential impact on competition and consumers. On Sept. 18, the U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority concluded that while AI has the potential to change people’s work and lives, the changes may happen too fast and could have a significant impact on competition.
Bitcoin miners double down on efficiency and renewable energy at the World Digital Mining Summit
Bitmain rolled out its next-generation Antminer S21 and S21 Hydro ASIC miners at the World Digital Mining Summit (WDMS) in Hong Kong on Sept. 22, revealing the crucial performance stats the entire industry has been waiting for. The S21 has a hash rate of 200 terahashes per second (TH/s) and an efficiency of 17.5 joules per terahash (J/T), while the S21 hydro hashes at 335 TH/s and 16 J/T, which is notable given that until recently, most Bitcoin ASICS were operating above the 20 J/T level.
With electricity costs continuing to rise year-over-year and the Bitcoin halving projected to occur in April 2024, ASIC efficiency is quickly becoming the paramount focus of miners, and many are also pivoting toward folding in renewable energy sources as a core component of their operations.
Bitcoin miners focus on efficiency and renewable energy
Sustainable development in the mining industry was a core theme discussed in a majority of the panels at the WDMS. In the opening roundtable, team members from Terrawulf, Core Scientific, CleanSpark and Iris Energy shared their perspectives on how further integration of renewable energy sources will become a critical strategy to implement for many miners after the April 2024 Bitcoin supply halving.
According to Nazar Khan, Terrawulf’s chief operating officer:
“There’s a significant transition going on in the supply side of the generation process; there’s a concerted effort to decarbonize the entire supply stack, and so when we talk about Bitcoin miners consuming more renewable energy, that’s part of a broader theme that’s happening across the United States without Bitcoin mining as well. The role that we play is locating our Bitcoin mining loads in places where that’s happening and how do we facilitate that decarbonization process.“
One impact of the upcoming supply halving is that miners will maintain the same capital and operational costs, plus the need to pay down any revolving debts, while essentially seeing their block reward distribution cut in half.
For this reason, miners will either need to increase the percentage of their hash rate derived from sustainable energy sources or make efficiency adjustments to their ASIC fleet to maintain or increase their profitability.
Regarding the rollout of the Antminer XP 21 and its potential impact on the mining industry, BMC founder Justin Kramer said:
“The S21, if reliable, fairly priced and readily available — and yes, that’s a lot of ifs with Bitmain’s history — could revolutionize the crypto mining landscape with its efficiency. It is basically packing the power of two S19 100T miners into one unit. Despite this, the burgeoning aftermarket firmware market, coupled with hydro/immersion systems, give miners more tools to keep older generation miners, such as the S19, profitable also. Thus, while the S21 represents a notable advancement, it may not render sub 110 TH/s miners entirely obsolete.”
When asked about the more exciting aspects of the new S19 XP, Kramer noted that:
“I like that Bitmain is rewarding environmentally friendly mining farms with better pricing and advanced delivery with their new Carbon Neutral Certificate. But, I’ll add that, it was a little surprising when I noticed that both new S21 models offer 33% more hash rate (S21 200T versus 151T on S19j XP; S21 hydro is 335T versus the S19 XP Hydro at 257T). Is this a coincidence? I’m doubtful, and it likely signals more of the same systematic model releases from Bitmain where a slight tweak to the firmware and maybe a few other items that are adjusted results in a moderate increase in hash rate and a brand-new miner.”
Bitcoin is en route to becoming an ESG asset
A theme of the past few years has been an increase in Bitcoin miners and BTC advocates pushing back against the assertion that Bitcoin mining is bad for the environment, and that the industry’s reliance on carbon-based energy production accelerates emissions.
Countering this perspective, Hong Kong Sustaintech Foundation professor in accounting and finance, Haitian Lu, bluntly announced that:
“Bitcoin mining is promoting renewable energy adoption in many areas.”
Lu explained that “over the years, Bitcoin mining has become more efficient and is also using cleaner energy. History tells us that human development from an agricultural society to industrialization to the future of a digitalized economy goes with every increasing energy consumption per capita. What makes the difference is human’s ability to use renewable energy increases, thus achieving sustainable development.”
Like the perspectives shared by other panelists, Lu said that Bitcoin miners’ participation in demand response agreements with power producers and distributors leads to energy grid efficiency, and they “provide an economic incentive for the development of renewable energy “promotion and development of renewable energy projects.”
In addition to Bitcoin mining tapping into stranded energy, encouraging the development of renewable energy projects and helping to balance electric grids, the efficiency advancements of next-generation ASICs like the Antminer S21 reduce miners’ energy consumption while also allowing them to boost their profits.
- Forex1 year ago
Forex Today: the dollar is gaining strength amid gloomy sentiment at the start of the Fed’s week
- Forex10 months ago
Unbiased review of Pocket Option broker
- World11 months ago
Why are modern video games an art form?
- Cryptocurrency1 year ago
What happened in the crypto market – current events today
- Forex1 year ago
How is the Australian dollar doing today?
- Forex1 year ago
Dollar to pound sterling exchange rate today: Pound plummeted to its lowest since 1985
- Stock Markets1 year ago
Morgan Stanley: bear market rally to continue
- Stock Markets9 months ago
Amazon layoffs news: company announces record layoffs