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Crypto market forecast 2022: The next few months will be crucial for the crypto market

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crypto market forecast 2022

The crypto market experienced another week of consolidation around the supposed “bottom”. The total capitalization index was at $999.28 billion at the beginning of the week. Then we saw growth to a local peak of $1.06 trillion (the index was again above $1 trillion for the first time in a month and a half). The index then declined to $959.1 billion by the end of the period under review. Thus, the final decrease in the total capitalization index was 4.02%. Against this background, we can try to make a crypto market forecast for 2022. 

What will be the crypto market forecast this week? After breaking through the corridor of 20,000-22,000 for the first time in a long time, the bitcoin price returned to this corridor again during the previous week. The period we are considering started for bitcoin at 23,712. On the first day, a local high of 24,208 was reached. Then, until the end of the week, the rate was systematically falling to the level of 21 300. The final decline at the end of the period was 8.5%.

Etherium, during the past period, demonstrated slightly different dynamics. Starting from 1551, the rate of the asset did not go out of the corridor of 1640-1528 till the end of the period, dropping down to the level of 1457. The fall at the end of the week amounted to 6.06%.

Even though one of the largest public owners of Bitcoin – Tesla, sold a significant part of its accumulation, other owners, who bought at similar levels, continue to hold. According to analytical service Glassnode, there are now three main levels of buying within past cycles – about 20,000/30,000/40,000. And the level of 20,000 was formed quite recently, in the last few months. Such dynamics additionally confirm the psychological value of “round” figures and also indicate many buyers in the current market ready to redeem BTC at a price slump.

Crypto market forecast this week

After the rapid growth in the spot market, the dominance of call options remains equally high for both BTC and ETH. The level of open interest rose strongly due to block trades – call spreads and “butterflies” with an execution date at the end of this year. The current price levels showed a fairly large volume of accumulation; most of the negative events are already in the price; respectively, traders have an appetite for risk, and expectations for a more successful end of the year. 

However, this cautious optimism is very different in its targets, if we compare the Bull Run period of last year. At that time, levels were actively traded several times higher than the current ones on the spot market. Now the target growth levels for BTC are 25,000-30,000, which is too far from last year’s highs. On the backdrop of this we can build a crypto market cap forecast.

Is a crypto bear market coming? The market is accumulating liquidity ahead of the Fed meeting this week, and is avoiding active directional choices until the decision is made, remaining cautiously optimistic. The next few months will be decisive regarding macro statistics and will allow for more accurate forecasting of funding conditions in global markets, which will add certainty and liquidity for future growth in cryptocurrency prices.



Cryptocurrency

New Ethereum Upgrade Could Reduce Block Time by 33% and Increase Throughput by 50%

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A new Ethereum Improvement Proposal, EIP-7781, introduced on October 5, 2024, aims to reduce Ethereum’s block time from 12 seconds to 8 seconds.

The upgrade, introduced by Ben Adams, co-founder of Illyriad Games, could also enhance data capacity and potentially increase network throughput by 50%.

A Major Step for Ethereum’s Future

In an October 6 post on X, a developer pseudonymously known as Cygaar hailed EIP-7781 as the “first huge” step toward improving Ethereum’s L1 performance. They suggested that implementing it could reduce network bottlenecks and improve data capacity.

EIP-7781 is designed to expand the capacity of “blobs,” a temporary data structure that reduces fees on layer-2 (L2) networks.

The proposed changes aim to improve mainnet throughput while evenly distributing bandwidth usage. Some hope this will ultimately reduce peak demands without increasing the number of blocks or blobs to ensure smoother processing and lower latency, particularly for L2s.

Many have expressed support for the improvement proposal. In the GitHub thread, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake noted that the plan aligns with broader scaling goals laid out by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, as well as several other scaling organizations.

Drake said that reducing block time could improve the efficiency of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Uniswap v3 by 22%, roughly saving it about $100 million each year in CEX-DEX arbitrage.

Additionally, experts say the upgrade could enhance the user experience for Ethereum smart contracts by reducing confirmation times by 33%. The changes would also distribute peak load times more evenly across more slots, reducing strain during periods of high demand.

Potential Concerns for Solo Stakers

Meanwhile, some developers are concerned about the plan’s impact on solo stakers. According to some of them, shorter block times would necessitate faster execution and more powerful hardware, increasing bandwidth and processing demands. It could pose challenges for individual stakers using consumer-grade hardware.

Responding to Cygaar’s post, Adam Cochran, a partner at Cinnehaim Ventures, described the EIP as “reasonable.” However, he stressed the need for the gas limit for every block to remain the same for it to be feasible for most users.

In addition, the Information Science professor warned that increased demands could hinder Ethereum’s long-term decentralization goals by making it harder for everyday users to act as validators.

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Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Stash Reaches $40.6 Million After Latest Purchase

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Tokyo-listed Bitcoin holder Metaplanet has purchased an additional 108.786 Bitcoin for 1 billion yen, reflecting its ongoing bullish stance on the crypto asset.

The latest stash is worth around $6.7 million.

Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin Holdings

According to the official statement released on Monday, Metaplanet – often referred to as Japan’s MicroStrategy – now holds 639.503 BTC, with a current market value of around $40.6 million. The firm disclosed that it acquired the additional bitcoins at an average price of 9.19 million yen ($61,880) per coin, while its total bitcoin purchases averaged 9.32 million yen ($62,790) per bitcoin.

The Japanese company has ramped up its bitcoin purchases over the past few months. In May, it declared that it was adopting the cryptocurrency as a key part of its treasury reserve strategy. Last week, it announced the acquisition of another 107.913 BTC, worth approximately 1 billion yen ($6.9 million).

Data compiled by Google Finance revealed that the firm’s stock price jumped over 12% following the announcement on October 7th, peaking at 1,045 yen on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, but later declining to 988 yen.

Metaplanet announced in August that it had obtained a 1 billion yen (worth around $6.8 million) loan from shareholder MMXX Ventures to boost its Bitcoin reserves. The loan features a 0.1% annual interest rate and a six-month term, beginning August 8, with repayment in a single lump sum. If the company uses the full loan amount for Bitcoin, it could purchase approximately 118.5 BTC at current prices.

Metaplanet’s Strategic Options Sale

Metaplanet also recently announced that it had sold 223 bitcoin put option contracts with a strike price of $62,000 and a maturity date of December 27.

The deal was made with Singapore-based digital asset trading firm QCP Capital as the counterparty. The announcement revealed that Metaplanet received a premium of 23.972 BTC ($1.44 million).

Metaplanet provided $13.826 million in collateral and received a 0.1075 BTC premium per contract upfront. The transaction yielded a nominal return of 10.75% and an annualized return of 45.63%.

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Ripple (XRP) Price Prediction for This Week

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XRP seems to have found support around 50 cents. Can buyers push the price higher this week?

Key Support levels: $0.50

Key Resistance levels: $0.54, $0.68

1. Price Finds Support

After a sharp fall last week, bulls appear to be back. XRP opened this Monday in green and is keen to return on an uptrend. As long as the key support at 50 cents holds, buyers have a good chance to return on the offensive.

XRPUSDT_2024-10-07_16-38-24
Chart by TradingView

2. Sellers are Retreating

Early October saw a spike in sell volume, but now sentiment across the market is improving, which could see the momentum shift back into the bulls’ favor. If so, buyers can aim to take XRP back above 60 cents. However, once there, sellers could return, as in late September.

XRPUSDT_2024-10-07_16-38-36
Chart by TradingView

3. MACD Momentum Shifting

After a difficult start this month, the momentum on the daily MACD is showing the first signs of a reversal, with a histogram making higher lows. If this trend continues, buyers could soon take over the price action and push XRP to break higher again.

XRPUSDT_2024-10-07_16-39-30
Chart by TradingView
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