Bitcoin’s market price on crypto exchanges fell to its lowest price since the early August massacre when it dumped below $50,000 for the first time since the spot Bitcoin ETFs were greenlighted in the US and started seeing actual demand.

BTC bounced off the previous such crash and even soared to $65,000 weeks later. However, the bears seem back in control now, with the asset down by 7% in the past seven days.

So what will it take for Bitcoin price to rebound again and when will that happen? Here are three BTC price predictions for the current market conditions.

1. $57,000 – BTC Miner’s Electricity Cost to Price Signal

X.com crypto analyst Astronomer Zero made this prediction Thursday before the US jobs report kicked bitcoin’s price down another $4,000. If Zero is right, that’s a bump in the road that should wash out soon.

$BTC

The weekly hash ribbons, another 100% accurate bottom signal just flashed

To finish up the data analysis considering whether this is a good time to buy, I included one more set of data analysis with once again powerful results (16 data points over the entire history of… https://t.co/H6CIcn0hOJ pic.twitter.com/6zwhZONPrM

— Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) September 6, 2024

The analyst spotted a pattern in miner capitulation and rebounds that could signal the market bottom is near for bitcoin.

“The mechanics of the hash ribbons are fairly simple: each time a cross up happens, the buy signal flashes,” Zero wrote. “This comes from an increase of the hash rate after a steep drop i.e. a compromise of the networks hash rate, a direct consequence of miners capitulation.”

2. $53,480 – Fibonacci Retracement

This represents a 25% drop from the top for BTC’s price of almost $74,000 registered in March. This is a common Fibonacci retracement percentage.

If BTC follows this mathematically common pattern found throughout nature as well as in liquid financial markets with lots of participants, we might be passed the bottom and on to another rally.

3. $50,000 – Recessionary Macro Bear Market

In BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes’ recent worst-case scenario prediction, the bear market in stocks widens, or there’s a US recession, and bitcoin goes as low as $50,000. Still, even he pivoted from his short strategy by closing his position on Sunday and hinting at a potential rally.

Peter Brandt, a well-known commodity and foreign exchange trader cautions it’s not just how low the price goes, but how long markets will have to wait until they begin to recover, “There are two dimensions to drawdowns – price and duration Prolonged corrections can cause more emotional damage than can steep corrections.”

The last time Bitcoin closed lower than the present price was February 25, 2024. $BTC #Bitcoin
There are two dimensions to drawdowns – price and duration
Prolonged corrections can cause more emotional damage than can steep corrections pic.twitter.com/IVwEx2PHic

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 6, 2024

Bitcoin’s price tumbled hard on Friday but managed to recover some ground on Saturday and has maintained above $54,000 since then.

The altcoins have also seen some minor relief increases, with ETH standing close to $2,300 and BNB reclaiming $500.

BTC Maintains $54K

It was another bearish week for the primary cryptocurrency, even though it headed toward $60,000 on Tuesday. However, the subsequent rejection pushed it south hard, and the asset plummeted to $55,500 by Wednesday.

Another lower high followed on Thursday, and bitcoin slipped to $55,200 on Friday in anticipation of the US jobs report. Once that came out and showed a modest decrease in the unemployment rates, BTC spiked by $1,500 in minutes to $57,000.

However, that was another short-lived rally that was followed by a massive drop. In a matter of minutes, BTC dumped by more than four grand and fell to $52,800. The bulls managed to intervene at this point and began a minor recovery that pushed bitcoin to just over $54,000 on Saturday.

Since then, the trading action has been mostly sideways, and BTC stands about $500 above it. Being 7% down weekly, though, means that its market cap has slumped to $1.075 trillion, and its dominance over the alts has declined by almost a whole percentage to 53.2% on CG.

SUI Takes Main Stage

The alts suffered just as badly as BTC in the past week, but most have posted minor gains on a daily scale. ETH is slightly in the green, which has helped it near $2,300, while BNB is up to $505 after a 2% daily increase.

SOL, DOGE, TRX, and TON have posted similar gains, while ADA is up by 4%. AVAX has soared by 6% daily. However, the biggest gainer from the top 50 alts is SUI, which has skyrocketed by almost 11%. As a result, the token now stands close to $1.

The total crypto market cap has defended the $2 trillion level (on CG) and is now about $20 billion above it.

TL;DR

• A potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve could boost the crypto market, possibly pushing BTC toward a new all-time high.
• Some experts argue that the positive impact of the effort might be temporary, suggesting that raising the benchmark could be more beneficial for the economy.

The Potential Pivot

The US Federal Reserve (the de facto central bank of the United States of America) is expected to reduce the interest rates during its next FOMC meeting scheduled for September 18. Recall that it lifted the benchmark 11 consecutive times between March 2022 and July 2023 to the current level of 5.25%-5.50%.

This might have a significant impact on financial markets, including the crypto sector. After all, a potential pivot will make money-borrowing cheaper, which, in turn, could boost investors’ interest in risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies.

The popular AI-powered chatbot – ChatGPT – also claimed that lowering the interest rates in the US may propel a bull run for digital assets, particularly Bitcoin (BTC). In fact, it estimated that the price of the primary cryptocurrency could reach an all-time high of $100,000 following the effort:

“Lower interest rates often lead to improved sentiment toward riskier assets like Bitcoin. If investors expect easier monetary conditions, they might be more inclined to allocate capital to Bitcoin, potentially driving its price higher.”

However, ChatGPT warned that this outcome is not guaranteed and will depend on various other factors. It assumed that a pivot from the Fed could weaken the US dollar, which in turn might make BTC more attractive as an alternative store of value.

Overall market conditions, regulatory developments, macroeconomic trends, and the level of institutional and retail demand for cryptocurrencies would also play a key role in an eventual ATH for the asset, the chatbot added.

Just a Short-Term Effect?

Other prominent industry participants, including BitMEX’s co-founder Arthur Hayes, believe a pivot from the Federal Reserve might only benefit BTC and the altcoins in the short run.

He compared the effect of such a move to the strong (yet brief) energy boost that sugary foods provide. Moreover, he thinks an interest hike would be more beneficial for the economy:

“The Fed is reaching for the rate cut sugar high before hunger arrives. From a purely economic perspective, the Fed should be raising, not cutting, rates.”