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Ripple case: Pro-XRP lawyer tips outright SEC victory at ‘less than 3%’

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Attorney John Deaton says there’s a 25% chance Ripple will see an outright win against the Securities and Exchange Commission, while rumors fly of a possible Ripple IPO.

Pro-XRP lawyer John Deaton has tipped less than a 3% chance for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission to score an outright win against Ripple, as an end to the long-running lawsuit draws closer.

The CryptoLaw founder has been a vocal advocate for Ripple against the SEC, which filed a lawsuit against the company in December 2020, alleging that the sale of its XRP token represented an unregistered securities offering.

In a June 3 episode of The Good Morning Crypto podcast, Deaton said he tipped a 25% chance that presiding U.S. District Judge Torres rules in outright favor of Ripple, and a 50% chance that Ripple claims victory by way of a “splitting the baby” ruling.

This refers to Judge Torress “drawing a line in the sand,” where she could potentially rule that XRP was offered as an unregistered security before 2018. However, in the wake of the Hinman documents — which refer to internal SEC messages related to a 2018 speech given by former SEC Director William Hinman — it’s possible that cryptocurrencies can transition from securities to commodities once they become sufficiently decentralized.

“I think that XRP itself is going to be deemed not a security and that I think that secondary market sales show comment. Even if [Judge Torres] does rule finding that Ripple violated the law, that doesn’t apply to secondary market sales,” Deaton explained.

While Ripple executives including its CEO Brad Garlinghouse have long been predicting an imminent end to the rollercoaster lawsuit from SEC, Deaton highlighted that Judge Torres will most likely come to a final decision before Sept. 30 this year.

Deaton brought attention to what he called a “six-month list” that district judges must file to Congress. The list details all of the summary judgements that have been pending for longer than six months. It gets published on the last day of March and the last day of September.

“She [Judge Torres] has never been on this list. It’s like a public shame list that says ‘look I’m shitty at my job.'”

Additionally, Deaton also gave his predictions for the price of Ripple’s native XRP token following a positive ruling.

“I certainly believe that somewhere believe $2 and $10 is reasonable”

Deaton said that the Ripple community should also keep a close eye on June 13, where investors will discover if XRP was actually discussed “between SEC staff prior to the Hinman speech.” This date is when the Hinman materials will most likely be unsealed and could have a drastic impact on the case.

There are also rumors circulating that Ripple may potentially IPO as a public company following the conclusion of the lawsuit. According to a June 2 tweet from Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett, Ripple hosted a “road show” where it met with underwriters and other investors to garner interest in a potential public offering.

Cryptocurrency

Are XRP Whales Positioning for the End of the Ripple vs. SEC Lawsuit?

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TL;DR

  • Ripple whales have been on an accumulation spree in recent weeks, and the question remains whether they are building positions for a future rally.
  • Such a run could be propelled by a potential conclusion of the years-long lawsuit between the company and the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Ever since Trump won the US elections and promised a more favorable future for the crypto industry in the States, as well as to fire former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the speculations about a potential resolution in the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit have gone rampant.

The rumors intensified as the US regulator dropped numerous cases against other crypto companies such as Coinbase, Consensys, Kraken, and more.

Popular attorneys have also weighed in on whether Ripple will see a similar faith. Although some claim that the Ripple case is much more complicated due to its four-year long history and the penalty the company was slammed with last year, there are other experts who think the lawsuit has already been closed or will be in the near future.

Should such a conclusion be around the corner, it is expected to massively impact the price of Ripple’s native token, which already surged by triple-digits after the favorable political and regulatory changes in the US.

XRP whales have been particularly active in the past several months, and their behavior often results in an immediate impact on the asset’s price. Most recently, at the end of February, they were disposing of their XRP holdings, which led to a price drop to $2.

However, Ali Martinez outlined a significant change in their strategy as they bought over 150 million XRP within a 2-day period alone. This begs the question whether they are positioning for the end of the lawsuit that started in December 2020.

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Deutsche Boerse’s Clearstream to Launch BTC and ETH Custody for Institutions: Report

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Deutsche Boerse’s post-trade unit, Clearstream, announced that it will introduce crypto custody and settlement services for institutional clients later this year.

The services will be provided through its majority-owned subsidiary, Crypto Finance, which will act as a sub-custodian.

Clearstream’s Offering

According to a Bloomberg report, Clearstream will offer custody services for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to its 2,500 clients starting next month. The company also plans to introduce support for other cryptocurrencies and expand its offerings to include staking, lending, and brokerage capabilities.

“With this offering, we are creating a one-stop shop around custody, brokerage, and settlement,” said Jens Hachmeister, head of issuer services and new digital markets at the firm. He also stated that the move would allow it to provide services for assets such as stablecoins and tokenized securities in the future.

According to Crypto Finance CEO Stijn Vander Straeten, the organization began planning this service roughly a year ago. The executive added that the strategy would enable banks and large institutions to adopt digital assets more quickly by using familiar technology and compliance tools.

Clearstream is one of Europe’s largest clearing houses, with approximately $21.7 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of January this year. Clients of the company’s central securities depository will be able to access crypto custody and settlement services using their existing accounts with Clearstream Banking SA.

Growing Demand Under MiCA

Traditional financial institutions have been increasing their presence in digital assets in response to regulatory clarity in regions such as the European Union (EU), Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Vander Straeten stated that demand from international banking clients has been “very high” since the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) took effect on December 30, 2024. He noted that management firms at these institutions often spend as much as €5 million to build and maintain internal crypto teams. “Here is a chance to have that at zero additional cost,” he said.

The latest offering follows a recent milestone in Germany, where Boerse Stuttgart Digital Custody became the first crypto asset service provider in the country to obtain a full MiCA authorization. Under the Europe-wide license, the organization is now a regulated infrastructure provider for banks, brokers, and asset managers.

Meanwhile, Spanish bank BBVA SA received regulatory approval on Monday to launch crypto trading services for retail clients. The financial institution plans to initially provide trading services for BTC and ETH through its mobile banking app, with a phased rollout starting with a select group of customers before expanding nationwide.

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Maddow Slams Trump and Calls Bitcoin ‘Scam’ – She Got These 5 Facts Wrong

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The Rhodes Scholar and liberal media commentator said in a segment that aired Thursday, March 6, that cryptocurrency is a scam. She also slammed the White House for “playing this game.”

President Donald Trump signed an executive order earlier that day establishing a national digital asset reserve.

White House crypto czar David Sacks said, “The US will not sell any Bitcoin deposited into the Reserve. It will be kept as a store of value. The Reserve is like a digital Fort Knox for the cryptocurrency, often called ‘digital gold.’”

“It’s worth looking at this crypto thing a little bit,” Maddow said on her show. “Only because it is a deeply, deeply old-fashioned simple scam. At this point, which points right to the White House.”

Here’s what Maddow said about Bitcoin and what she got wrong.

1. Unlike Beanies, Bitcoin’s Price Goes Up

“Helpfully, the broad strokes of crypto trading are not complicated,” Maddow said. “It’s like when there was the Beanie Baby craze in the late 1990s.”

“It was a Beanie Baby trading bubble,” she explained. “Other than some emotional value if you had one as a child, Beanie Babies did not have much inherent value.”

“But it was worth buying up a bunch of them because there was speculation on the premise that as collectibles, maybe one day your Beanie Babies collection could be worth a lot of money.”

There is, however, a key difference between Bitcoin and Beanie Babies. While Beanie Babies debuted in 1993 at the World Toy Fair in New York City, this toy fad reached its height six years later in 1999.

Following the dot com crash in 2000, the auction price frenzy for Babies never recovered to those levels again.

To get a realistic idea of the aftermarket value of stuffed toys, one need only study a local thrift store in their city. But unlike Beanie Babies, Bitcoin’s price has been going up ever since it launched on Jan. 3, 2009.

That’s 16 years of growth in daily exchange rate for the dollar that dwarves comparable ROIs from the highest- flying tech stocks in the stock market’s entire history.

During its periodic bear markets, which have so far occurred on a fairly predictable 4-year cycle, critics have repeatedly called Bitcoin a fad and declared it dead.

But every time the skeptics have turned out wrong when the price sets new all-time high records within four years. When it comes to historical records, there is no sensible comparison between Beanie Babies and Bitcoin.

While the toy collectibles peaked in 1999 and never recovered, Bitcoin created 84,000 new crypto millionaires in 2024, according to a report on CNBC.

2. Beanie Babies Markets Are Not Liquid or Transparent

“Cryptocurrencies operate on the same idea,” Maddow went on in her segment to say.

“They have no inherent value at all. The only value they have is that if you have some reason to believe that somebody else might want to buy them from you in the future.”

“What that means in very practical terms is that convincing other people that your crypto is popular and in demand— that is key to actually making money.”

But it’s not true that cryptocurrencies operate on the same idea as toy and fashion manias or that assets like Bitcoin have no inherent value.

Beanie Babies are not a financial product and do not bear qualities that would make them suitable for use as one. It is not as easy as sending an email to exchange a truckload of toy plushies, but it is very nearly that easy to exchange Bitcoin.

It’s also unfeasible to keep track of how many Beanie Babies are in the market and post up-to-the-minute daily trading data about each one.

It is not only feasible with Bitcoin and other cryptos like the ones going in the national reserve— computer developers engineered them that way.

That’s part of the value they provide that makes it possible to use these digital commodities as financial products and investment vehicles: liquidity and transparency.

3. Beanie Babies Are Not Durable and Fungible Like Crypto

Meanwhile, Beanie Babies are not durable and fungible like cryptocurrencies. Who wants someone else’s stuffed toy that they’ve been blowing their nose on and rubbing Cheeto grease into?

These inventories have market values that are highly sensitive to wear and tear, and the products are very vulnerable to deteriorating into a condition with a resale value marked well below retail.

Even when maintained in mint condition, after-market values for toy collectibles are more like the market for used automobiles. After being driven off the lot, they immediately and sharply depreciate.

The inventors of crypto assets BTC, on the other hand, paid careful attention to designing their economics or “tokenomics” to optimize them for resale value over time and for the foreseeable future.

Cryptocurrencies like the two mentioned above have supply limits that introduce scarcity economics. They are also not subject to deteriorating physical condition.

In fact, any unit of Bitcoin is always equal to any other equivalent unit in market value. This is called fungibility, and it is a system requirement for an asset to function as a currency.

4. Beanie Babies Are Not Scarce Like Bitcoin

“The idea of hyping cryptocurrency is that people should buy in soon, right?” Maddow continued on her show.

“Get in on the ground floor while it’s cheap because it’s about to go way up in value because there’s so much interest in it. If you get in on the ground floor now, then you’ll make a bundle. It’s the whole hype. It’s the whole scam.”

While it is true that participants in crypto markets may engage in inauthentic, hyped-up marketing tactics, that doesn’t make the underlying assets a scam.

Nor does it mean there aren’t more intelligent reasons why financial geniuses like BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Shark Tank panelist Kevin O’Leary, or Strategy’s Michael Saylor believe investing in Bitcoin and the blockchain is not only not a scam— but the next phase of developing the Internet and human civilization.

5. Bitcoin Commands Real Demand, Not Just Hype

After making all these mistakes in her broadcast, Maddow finally undid her own case completely with her closing thoughts on this segment.

“Imagine Trump had just announced that the US government was going to buy up tons of Beanie Babies,” the MSNBC host said. “We are going to establish a federal government reserve of billions of Beanie Babies.”

“What do you think would happen to the value of Beanie Babies? Turns out there’s a huge guaranteed buyer for these things. They’re buying billions of them.”

The answer to her question is: Their value would probably go up like most analysts expect of Bitcoin. Since there’s a huge guaranteed buyer and that buyer is the US government.

Not bad for a scam.

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