Bitcoin’s price has been going through some major moves throughout the past couple of weeks. The bulls are fighting to reestablish their dominance, staging a convincing recovery above $60K. But will it last?

Technical Analysis

By TradingRage

The Daily Chart

The price has been oscillating inside a descending channel on the daily chart for the past couple of months. The channel was briefly broken to the downside a few days ago.

However, BTC quickly rebounded and climbed back inside the channel, making a fake bearish breakout. With the $60K level also turning into support, the price will likely target the $68K resistance level in the short term.

The 4-Hour Chart

Looking at the 4-hour chart, it is evident that the price has quickly recovered from below the channel and the $60K level. The midline of the descending channel is now the next target.

Meanwhile, with the RSI approaching the overbought zone, the price might experience a pullback soon. The continuation of the bullish trend is dependent on whether the price can finally break the channel to the upside.

On-Chain Analysis

By TradingRage

Bitcoin Miners Position Index

While Bitcoin’s price has been trading below the $75K level, many market participants have been offloading their coins as they assume that the bull market might be over or a much deeper pullback is probable. However, miners are not in this group.

This chart demonstrates the Miners Position Index (MPI) metric. It measures miners’ selling pressure. Values above 2 can be considered dangerous, as they show massive destruction by the miners.

As the chart depicts, the MPI has been dropping rapidly over the last few months. This is a good sign, as the Miners’ selling pressure is declining. Thus, with sufficient demand, Bitcoin’s price can once again begin a rally toward $80K and even higher prices.

Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, has released its Q1 2024 earnings report, posting a total revenue of $1.6 billion, a 72% increase quarter on quarter.

The performance has been driven by the rising crypto asset prices and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. which further improved inflows into the market.

Coinbase Earnings Surged in Q1

Coinbase’s net income reached $1.18 billion, $4.40 per share, translating to $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA in Q1. Comparatively, the adjusted EBITDA, which shows earnings before tax, depreciation, interest, and amortization, was $977.5 million in 2023.

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The earnings report also showed that Coinbase attributed its net income partly to $737 million in pre-tax unrealized gains on crypto assets. The firm ended the quarter with $7.1 billion in capital, including $1.1 billion in net cash raised through the sale of 2030 convertible notes.

Consumer transaction revenue doubled to $935.2 million, and volume mirrored this, growing 93% to $56 billion. Institutional interest increased as well with transactions gaining revenue of $85 million, a 133% increase quarter on quarter. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Prime trading volume grew 105% to $256 billion, surpassing the U.S. spot market. Notably, Bitcoin accounted for a third of consumer and institutional transactions.

Coinbase’s custodial services revenue jumped 64% to $32 million. The surge was driven by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in the year since Coinbase is the custodian of eight of the eleven newly launched products. Assets under custody hit $171 billion as the quarter came to an end.

Coinbase’s Base Revenue Soars, Expenses Surge

Since its August launch, Base, Coinbase’s Ethereum layer 2 chain, has amassed $56.1 million in revenue. It has exhibited double the transaction volume compared to Ethereum, alongside an 800% surge in developer activity.

During the quarter, Coinbase acquired a minority stake in Circle, the issuer of USDC stablecoin, whose market capitalization increased by 30%. This boosted subscriptions and services revenue by a third, including a 15% increase in stablecoin revenue.

Despite diversification with Base and USDC, the recent boom was due to favorable market conditions. Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed 57% to an all-time high of $73,000, fueled by over $50 billion entering 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in January.

Meanwhile, the company’s transaction expenses increased by 73% to $217 million. Due to increased trading volume, the company expects even higher costs in Q2, as high as $890 million.

Ethereum’s price is yet to continue its uptrend following a rejection from the $4,000 resistance level. But the bulls are now showing signs of strength, perhaps staging a more considerable recovery.

Technical Analysis

By TradingRage

The Daily Chart

As the daily chart depicts, Ethereum’s price has been making lower highs and lows inside a descending channel since failing to break above the $4,000 resistance level.

Yet, the cryptocurrency is climbing back above the $3,000 level and the midline of the channel. If the market successfully recovers back to these levels, a breakout above the channel and a continuation toward $4,000 and even higher prices can be expected.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart offers a much clearer picture of recent price action. The market has barely broken through the $3,000 resistance zone and is currently testing the midline of the descending channel.

With the RSI showing values above 50%, ETH is likely to break through the level and potentially continue outward to the $3,600 resistance area. In this case, market participants can be optimistic that a new bullish wave will begin soon.

Sentiment Analysis

By TradingRage

Ethereum Funding Rates

Following the recent decline in Ethereum’s price, many futures traders have been liquidated or reversed their long positions. This can be a good sign, as the futures market has seemingly cooled down.

This chart demonstrates the Ethereum funding rates metric, which measures whether buyers or sellers are executing their futures orders more aggressively (using market orders). Positive values point to bullish sentiment, while negative ones show bearish expectations.

It is evident that the funding rates have significantly dropped compared to a couple of months ago. Low but positive funding rates can be interpreted as a bullish signal, as they show that while the futures market is not overheated anymore, the demand is still there, and the price can soon rally higher.