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Spot Bitcoin ETF Saga Intensifies: Experts Suggest Boosting Cash Holdings

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Those closely monitoring the ongoing developments in the spot Bitcoin ETF saga are likely aware the stakes have never been higher. Experts are now emphasizing potential scenarios and recommended responses in the event of an approval.

Increasing the cash portion of the investor portfolio and preparing for volatility could be the right way to go.

Short-Term Market Overheating Risks

Crypto analyst MAC_D, who cited CryptoQuant’s data, said that there has been a notable surge in the 1-day to 1-week holder ratio, reaching 6.74%. These investors are considered short-term, and a higher ratio typically signals a short-term market overheating. The analyst suggests that if a market overheating threshold is set at 8%, there could be increased price volatility following the announcement of spot ETF approval.

In a bullish scenario, where Bitcoin reaches $48.5k, the percentage of 1-day to 1-week holders is expected to exceed 8%, indicating a potentially overheated market prone to correction rather than further ascent.

Additional data highlighted that for holders with a holding period of 2-3 years, the average unit price is $48.5k. This cohort, representing the only “losing group” among all long-term and short-term Bitcoin investors, is likely to pose significant resistance, given their average unit price.

In a bearish scenario, the analyst stated that Bitcoin has historically experienced a decline ranging from 20-30% during previous upward rallies. Hence, a correction of similar magnitude could come into play, with $34K and $30K emerging as crucial support levels if the price undergoes a decline.

This expectation is rooted in the analysis of the average unit price based on holding periods. For the 1-week to 3-month and 18 months to 2-year holders, the average unit price stands at $34K, while the 3 to 12-month holders have an average unit price of $30K. As a result, a decrease in these average unit prices is more likely to trigger buying pressure rather than selling pressure.

Prepping for Uncertainty

As the eagerly awaited decision on the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF looms, the risks in the market are on the rise, accompanied by a growing sense of uncertainty. In light of these circumstances, CryptoQuant data highlighted the need to exercise caution and avoid exposing oneself to excessive upcoming risks.

MAC_D’s findings also suggest that, with the approval outcome imminent, Bitcoin is anticipated to experience a modest upside coupled with a significant potential for a substantial correction. In response to this outlook, a strategic move would be to increase the cash portion within one’s portfolio and proactively prepare for heightened volatility.

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Old XRP Coins Cause Stir Indicating Potential ‘Buy the Dip’ Interest

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Dormant tokens in the XRP Ledger have begun to stir, setting the stage for May’s market activity.

New data suggest the blockchain is seeing another “huge blast” in dormant XRP movement, alongside increasing open interest (AI).

Surge in Old XRP Coin Movement

According to Santiment’s Token Age Consumed metric, there has been a significant surge in the movement of old XRP coins on the ledger, similar to the spike observed just before the market downturn on April 13th, during which the cryptocurrency plummeted by 16%.

However, in this particular case, there’s a compelling argument suggesting that this movement is tied to potential “buy the dip” interest from influential stakeholders, the crypto-analytic platform said in its latest findings.

“This time around, however, there is an argument that this old coin movement is related to potential #buythedip interest from key stakeholders, and prices have been climbing mildly since this May spike occurred. Also, keep in mind the increasing open interest on exchanges, which has just reached a 3-week high.”

Interestingly, despite this movement, XRP prices have shown a mild climb since the May spike occurred. Moreover, the increasing open interest in exchanges, which hit $483.4 million, reaching a 3-week high, also needs to be taken into account. As such, investors rushing to rake in XRP coins amidst the asset’s ongoing relief rally could potentially increase confidence among market players.

The latest development follows XRP Ledger developers’ recent proposal which suggested implementing direct lending to users through the blockchain.

They propose a system for offering fixed-term loans with interest, using pooled funds, and without the need for on-chain collateral. This method depends on off-chain underwriting and risk management, as well as what developers call a “First-Loss Capital protection scheme” to safeguard the protocol.

Introducing XRPL Solutions in Japan

Last month, Ripple, which uses XRP Ledger for its cross-border payment settlement, announced a strategic partnership with HashKey DX to introduce XRPL-based blockchain solutions to the Japanese market.

With this joint venture, SBI Group will become the first Japanese corporation to leverage this supply chain finance solution.

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Crypto Price Analysis May-03: ETH, XRP, ADA, SHIB, and DOT

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This week, we take a closer look at Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Shiba Inu, and Polkadot.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum broke under $3,000 and closes this week with a 5% loss. This latest crash in the price made a lower low which shows bears are still in control of the price action.

The current support is at $2,900 and buyers have to protect this level at all costs. If they fail, then the next major support will be found at $2,500.

Looking ahead, ETH was quickly rejected at the $3,350 resistance in late April. Since then, the price has been in a downtrend. The bias remains bearish, but hopefully May can bring better news for this cryptocurrency.

ETHUSD_2024-05-03_18-01-43
Chart by TradingView

Ripple (XRP)

Ripple continues to move sideways and closes the week with a 1% loss. While this is not much, volatility was higher this week when the price briefly dropped to 48 cents before bouncing.

The resistance is found at 54 cents and the price seems unable to break this level at this time. Therefore, XRP is more likely to move sideways under the key resistance.

Looking ahead, if sellers decide to return in force, then the next key level of support is at 50 cents. While the chart is bearish, the hope is that sellers will become exhausted after they dominated in April.

XRPUSDT_2024-05-03_18-02-03
Chart by TradingView

Cardano (ADA)

ADA was rejected by the resistance at 46 cents and appears to still struggle. The price is in a downtrend and has fallen by 4% this week.

If buyers don’t return soon, then ADA may make new lows and approach the key support at 40 cents. If that also falls, then buyers could return at 37 cents where ADA had strong demand in the past.

Looking ahead, sell volume has been declining even if the price is falling. This could be an early sign that selling may subside and bulls could be provided with an opportunity to recover some of the recent losses.

ADAUSDT_2024-05-03_18-02-17
Chart by TradingView

Shiba Inu (SHIB)

Shiba Inu lost it’s support at $0.000025 which has now turned into a resistance. For that reason, the price dropped by 11% this week.

The most important support on the chart is at $0.000018, and if nothing changes in the current momentum, then this meme coin will likely test this level.

Looking ahead, SHIB’s correction does not appear to be ending any time soon and may continue well into May. As long as the overall market remains bearish, SHIB will likely follow with lower lows.

SHIBUSDT_2024-05-03_18-02-40
Chart by TradingView

Polkadot (DOT)

DOT’s price bounced on the support at $6.3 which allowed it to close the week with a 3% price increase. This is impressive considering all the other coins on our list are in red.

As long as this key support holds, Polkadot has a good chance to challenge the resistance at $7.6 which has so far stopped any attempt from buyers to move the price higher.

Looking ahead, DOT has been moving sideways since mid-April which bring optimism that this downtrend may be coming to an end. To confirm this, buyers have break the resistance at $7.6

DOTUSDT_2024-05-03_18-03-07
Chart by TradingView
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Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.

Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.

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BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin’s Price Slump as Market Cleansing

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Experts now suggest that bitcoin may have reached a local bottom and will gradually recover over the coming months.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, for one, noted that the leading cryptocurrency might see a surge in value if, as he predicts, liquidity increases in the economy next week due to Janet Yellen’s policies.

Bitcoin May Have Hit a Local Bottom

In his latest blog post, Hayes said bitcoin’s latest slump has “played out” as he anticipated, attributing it to various factors such as the US tax season, uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s actions, the halving “sell the news” event, and a slowdown in the growth of assets under management (AUM) for the spot ETFs in the US. The BitMEX founder sees these “coalesced” events as a necessary cleansing for the market.

He even implied that casual investors, or “tourists,” may opt to stay out of the market for a while, possibly enjoying the sidelines. On the other hand, the exec believes serious investors will continue to hold their positions and even accumulate more of their preferred cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, ether, and potentially high-risk altcoins such as Solana, Dogecoin, and others.

Shedding further light on the recent market activity, Hayes said bitcoin hit a local low at around $56,500 earlier this week and he even expects a rally for the asset that could drive its price above $60,000 once again. This has indeed been the case in the past few hours as BTC jumped above $60,000. Following this surge, Hayes anticipates that there could be a period of range-bound price action between $60,000 and $70,000 until August.

“I expect prices to bottom, chop, and begin a slow grind higher.”

Sideways for Now?

Bitcoin surpassed $61,800 on Friday after gaining approximately 5% over the past 24 hours, showing signs of recovery from a midweek decline that pushed its price below $57,000. The recent uptick in price and recovery suggests that bitcoin is attempting to regain its footing after a period of volatility and downward pressure. However, experts believe that the asset would trade sideways.

Pseudonymous crypto analyst Kaleo said that BTC’s sideways movement is typical following a halving event, mirroring patterns seen in previous cycles. Kaelo explained that after the halving, it’s common for bitcoin to undergo a few months of sideways price action as miners now receive essentially half the revenue they did previously.

A similar sentiment was echoed by Jeff Ross, Founder and CEO of Vailshire Capital Management, while addressing the ongoing sentiment of pessimism surrounding bitcoin. Despite the “doom and gloom,” Ross maintained his bullish stance referring to the ongoing market as a “bullcrab.”

The exec also said that predicting the end of the bitcoin bull market may be premature, indicating that the actual one has yet to start. Ross sees the upcoming weeks and months as a prime opportunity to accumulate BTC at lower prices as the cryptocurrency trades sideways.

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