Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase after tagging the $111K region, following a strong multi-week rally. While momentum has cooled, the broader structure remains intact.

The price action is showing signs of potential accumulation at support, and traders are watching closely to see if this pullback turns into a deeper correction or a fresh leg up.

Technical Analysis

By ShayanMarkets

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC is currently holding above the $103K region after sweeping the $101K sell-side liquidity. The previous bullish structure is still valid, and the price is likely targeting the mid-range of the ascending channel. The 100-day (orange) and 200-day (blue) moving averages are not far below, sitting at $92K and $95K, respectively, and continue to slope upward. This indicates that the long-term bullish momentum is not yet broken.

The RSI on the daily is recovering slightly from below 50, suggesting neutral momentum after days of cooling off. Until the asset breaks below the $100K–$101K range, the current drop looks like a healthy correction in an uptrend. However, failure to reclaim the $106K–$108K resistance area quickly could increase the probability of revisiting the $95K–$97K order block, and even the two moving averages.

The 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4H chart, BTC wicked below the descending wedge pattern after finding strong demand near the $100K area and began a V-shaped recovery. This structure historically signals a bullish reversal, and the move back above $103K supports this case.

However, the current rally is approaching resistance again, which is the higher boundary of the pattern near the $105K mark, and the RSI is still under 50. This level could act as a temporary ceiling unless momentum strengthens.

The sharp wick below $100K looks like a textbook liquidity grab, suggesting market makers ran stops before driving the price higher. If the buyers manage to hold above the $100K base and flip the $105K–$106K area, the door reopens for a push toward $108K and possibly a new all-time high above $112K. On the other hand, a failure to do so would likely lead to more range-bound action between $101K and $106K in the coming days.

On-Chain Analysis

Exchange Reserve

The Exchange Reserve chart reveals a persistent and steep decline in the amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges, now reaching a historic low at 2.3 million BTC. This trend has accelerated over the past year and continues into June 2025, despite BTC trading above $100K. In classical supply-demand terms, this represents a significant supply-side squeeze: fewer coins on exchanges mean less liquidity available for instant sale, tightening the circulating supply and amplifying the impact of even moderate demand spikes.

This behaviour reflects a strong macroeconomic undercurrent. First, institutional accumulation is likely driving much of this trend. Large entities often move coins off exchanges into custody solutions when positioning for long-term holding or to reduce counterparty risk. Second, the growing presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs and custodial platforms (like Fidelity or BlackRock) means that BTC is increasingly flowing into vehicles that don’t recycle it back onto exchanges, removing it from the liquid supply indefinitely. This dynamic creates structural illiquidity that underpins Bitcoin’s asymmetric upside.

Bitcoin’s gradual ascent continued in the past 24 hours, as the asset managed to bounce above $105,000 and even challenged $106,000 briefly.

Since most altcoins are quite sluggish on a daily scale, we will examine in more detail their weekly performances, where TAO and CRO stand in one corner, while HYPE, LEO, ICP, and TRX are in the other.

BTC Above $105K

The world’s largest cryptocurrency tried to break out at the beginning of the business week from its consolidation range but was stopped at $106,000 and $106,500 on Monday and Tuesday. The following rejections drove it south to the lower boundary, but the bulls went on the offensive once again on Thursday.

However, bitcoin was stopped once again at $106,000, but this time, the correction was a lot more violent. Perhaps influenced by the ongoing spat between US President Trump and Tesla CEO Musk, BTC’s price tumbled hard and went to a multi-week low of $100,400 (on Bitstamp).

As it came close to a breakdown below the coveted $100,000 level, the situation reversed and bitcoin started to recover some ground. By Friday noon, it had rebounded to around $105,000. Slightly more volatility followed, but BTC was ultimately stopped at $106,000 yesterday and now trades around $500 lower.

Its market capitalization has risen to just shy of $2.1 trillion, while its dominance over the alts stands tall at 61.5%.

Alts Up and Down

The weekly scale shows that HYPE has emerged as the top gainer, having surged by almost 9%. As a result, the high-flyer now sits above $35, just less than $5 away from its recent peak. ICP follows suit with an 8% weekly increase, while LEO, TRX, and AAVE are next.

On the opposite scale are TAO (-11%), GT (-5.3%), and CRO (-5.2%). SOL, DOGE, ADA, AVAX, and SHIB are also about to close the weekly candle in the red.

The total crypto market cap has added around $30 billion since yesterday and is up to $3.410 trillion on CG.

TL;DR

• Although the US SEC continues to delay making decisions on various XRP ETF applications, the potential approval odds on Polymarket exploded in early June.
• Perhaps the most notable reason behind this odd increase is a recent update by the US securities watchdog, which involved XRP and other altcoins.

Polymarket Odds Through the Roof

As perma-XRP bull John Squire informed recently, the chances for approval of a Ripple ETF by the end of the year had skyrocketed to 98%. Recall that the odds had dropped below 70% just a few weeks prior and recovered to 80% before the surge.

As of press time, the percentage has dropped to 88%, which is still a lot higher than the year’s average. When it comes down to a July 31 deadline, though, the odds are down to 17% and continue to get lower as the date approaches, and there are no big developments on the matter aside from SEC application delays.

$XRP ETF confidence soars to 98%

The market isn’t guessing anymore, it’s anticipating.

Liquidity, legitimacy, and momentum are lining up.
This is no longer “if”… it’s when. pic.twitter.com/Bi4Z88kLpD

— John Squire (@TheCryptoSquire) June 7, 2025

The reason why odds on Polymarket are so important for future developments is the platform’s success rate. As reported earlier this year, its accuracy levels have been quite impressive, at around 90%.

Here’s Why the Odds Surged

Such an impressive pump in the approval odds from around 80% to almost 100% in a single day couldn’t be just a coincidence. In fact, it came after the SEC approved a NASDAQ crypto US settlement price index, which includes XRP, as well as other altcoins like ADA, SOL, and XLM.

According to crypto experts, this development is particularly important as it signals that these assets have solid liquidity and reliable pricing, and it removes key obstacles for spot ETF approvals.

BREAKING:

SEC APPROVES NASDAQ CRYPTO US SETTLEMENT PRICE INDEX INCLUDING $SOL, $ADA, $XLM, AND $XRP.

HERE’S WHY THIS IS HUGE!

– SEC SIGNALS THESE ALTS HAVE STRONG LIQUIDITY & RELIABLE PRICING.

– REMOVES KEY OBSTACLE FOR SPOT ETF APPROVAL.

-FOLLOWS BTC/ETH PRECEDENT,… pic.twitter.com/9uogirFJhP

— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) June 7, 2025

Interestingly, the approval odds for ADA and SOL ETFs by the end of the year didn’t experience a similar surge. Moreover, the chances for Cardano are down to 42% from 70%, while those for Solana are at 79%, which is still lower than the percentages from a week ago.