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Business Insider: Risk of recession in Europe. EU to fall into severe recession due to inflation and weakening economy

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risk of recession in europe

The risk of a recession in Europe is higher than ever. The EU could plunge into a severe recession, as the energy crisis is provoking a rise in inflation and a negative impact on GDP. It writes Business Insider, citing data from the analytical company BlackRock.

“Energy shortages will lead to a recession in Europe, as we already warned in March. The crisis has since worsened as Russia has cut off gas supplies to the continent,” the analysts said.

Is Europe in a recession now? 

According to analysts, tightening monetary policy will only break European economic activity, which is already severely affected by the consequences of the energy crisis. Right now, energy costs in Europe account for about 11.7% of total GDP. In the U.S., the figure is 5.3%.

Blackrock added that the European Central Bank (ECB) does not want to admit that its actions only make things worse. At the same time, the ECB will continue to follow its policy until the end of the year. This will lead to an additional 0.9% reduction in economic growth. Also, the energy crisis in Europe will peak in winter as the need for heating will rise sharply, which will provoke another rise in prices.

On September 12, Bloomberg agency regarding data from the financial conglomerate Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported that the US economy has much more stimulus to grow in the coming months than the European Union. The economic situation in European countries is currently in dire straits.

Earlier we reported that Europe’s economy is in a “terrible” state.

Economy

Current inflation in Argentina could reach a record 100% by the end of the year

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why is inflation in argentina so high

Current inflation in Argentina reached 82.2% in September, the highest since the Great Depression, and may reach 100% by the end of the year. 

Why is inflation in Argentina so high?

According to the publication, inflation in the country by the end of 2022 could reach 100%, several times higher than in other Latin American countries. Experts estimate that during the 33 months of President Fernandez’s cabinet, prices in the country rose by 243.6 percent.

“The government of Argentine President Alberto Fernández has once again rebuked entrepreneurs for chasing excessive profits in a situation where the country’s inflation – the worst since the Great Depression 30 years ago – was 82.2 percent this year by the end of September, according to independent economists,” the publication noted.

According to the famous Argentine sociologist Augustine Salvia, after the elections and the organization of public works in the summer the economy went into a recession, as more and more people began to work without an employment contract. At the same time, the situation at the end of the fourth quarter could be even worse.

Earlier, we reported that OPEC+ extended the deal until 2024 and reduced the oil production quota by 2 million bpd.



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The U.S. will not sell strategic reserve oil after the end of Biden’s executive order

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strategic reserve oil

The U.S. administration is not considering an option for strategic reserve oil after the departure of President Joe Biden’s executive order. This was stated by White House press secretary Karin Jean-Pierre at a briefing.

“We’re not considering a new sale of strategic reserve oil beyond the one you’re talking about. I have nothing more to say, we’re not going to consider new sales,” Jean-Pierre said.

According to her, the U.S. will continue to fight inflation. However, no action will be taken now with the strategic reserves. Because this could lower oil reserve levels.

In late March, Biden signed an executive order that required the U.S. Energy Department to sell 1 million barrels of oil a day for six months from the strategic reserve for the sake of reducing gasoline prices in the country.

On Oct. 1, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm asked U.S. energy companies to lower fuel prices and rebuild their reserves.

Before that, global oil prices on September 28 began to decline by more than 1% in the morning amid information about a sharp increase in fuel stocks in the United States.

Earlier we reported that French enterprises were obliged to determine their own measures to save energy.

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OPEC+ extended the deal until 2024 and reduced OPEC+ oil production quota by 2 million bpd

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is opec+ cutting oil production

The OPEC+ alliance has agreed to extend the deal on oil production volumes until December 31, 2023. The daily OPEC+ oil production quota for the member countries of the commodity association will be reduced by 2 million barrels, according to a press release from the organization.

“Participating countries have decided to extend the declaration of cooperation until December 31, 2023 and to adjust total production downward by 2 million bpd from the required production levels in August 2022,” the statement said.

The reduction in daily production levels of oil will begin in November 2022. The alliance also stressed the importance of sticking to the new terms of the deal for each member of the cartel.

Is OPEC+ cutting oil production?

The new requirements were conditioned by the state of general uncertainty in the world energy market as well as the risks of a recession in the global economy in the light of international sanctions against one of the leaders in oil exports, Russia.

On October 5, the EUobserver reported that the eighth package of the EU’s anti-Russian sanctions will take effect on the sixth of this month. The list of restrictions will include: the introduction of price caps on oil transported by sea, as well as measures against exports of steel and timber industries. The total damage is estimated at up to €7 billion.

Earlier we reported that China earns hundreds of millions of dollars from reselling LNG from the US to European companies.

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