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Business news in Germany: Business confidence falls

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Business news in Germany: Business confidence in Germany – the main driver of regional growth – fell in August to 80.3, which, however, was higher than experts’ expectations, Bloomberg said.

The Ifo Institute business sentiment indicator fell to 80.3 in August, while the estimate was even lower at 79.0, indicating a 0.1% increase in the second quarter. This unexpected growth helped the country narrowly avoid stagnation.

What affects business confidence in Germany? 

Business culture in Germany has always been at a high level. The deterioration in business confidence in Germany is mainly due to a steep rise in inflation and increased fears of a possible recession in the country.

At the same time, the outlook for the next six months has fallen to 80.3 from 80.4 in July, although economists had predicted a steeper decline.

Because of energy problems – the country’s government has set a course to switch from Russian fuel to alternative supplies as soon as possible – business surveys highlight Germany as one of the vulnerable members of the eurozone, which includes 19 countries. German output began to decline in July and contracted again in August, according to S&P Global.

Germany’s government spending, as well as household spending, helped keep it afloat. However, a sharp rise in prices threatens households and companies.

The index of entrepreneurial confidence is a qualitative indicator that allows us to characterize the economic activity of organizations and provide anticipatory information about changes in economic variables according to the answers of managers about the forecast of output, balances and demand for it. The indicator is the arithmetic average of the “balances” of the answers to the questions about expected output, actual demand, and current balances of finished goods (the latter with the opposite sign).

Earlier, we reported that the U.S. shale sector in 2022 will record cash flow.



Economy

EU plans to agree on new sanctions on Russia before next week’s summit

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The European Union expects to find agreement on a package of new sanctions on Russia, or at least on its main parts, before the bloc’s summit next week, Reuters reported.

“We expect an agreement on new economic sanctions on Russia or at least on its main parts before next week’s EU summit,” a European official said.

According to the agency’s interlocutor, EU leaders are going to discuss different ideas on the energy price ceiling. He stressed that the upcoming meeting should be tense, as “difficult times” are coming.

Earlier it was reported that new EU proposals on economic sanctions against Russia will affect diamond miner Alrosa and some other Russian companies.

The EU Commission and Foreign Affairs Service put forward the ideas on September 27th against the background of the referendums.

Earlier, we reported that the Fed had lost its credibility.

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Market decline triggers a wave of foreign currency intervention in Asian countries

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After the start of the fight against inflation in the U.S. six months ago, when the Federal Reserve began raising the cost of borrowing, authorities in many Asian countries were also forced to carry out foreign currency intervention and increase their efforts to prevent their own currencies from falling, Bloomberg wrote.

One of the first such countries in Asia was South Korea, whose central bank spent currency intervention, saying it will buy sovereign debt of up to $2.1 billion.

Taiwan officials also took their own measures, introducing a countervailing currency intervention and declaring their readiness to ban short sales of stocks. China instructed a lot of funds to refrain from large sales of shares, and banks – to make sure the “observance” of the daily yuan rate in the market. Thus, the Japanese yen remains close to 145 per $1, and the yuan has reached its lowest level since 2008.

The rapid growth of the dollar to the detriment of all other assets is particularly acute in the Asian market. Central banks in Indonesia, Japan and India have also undertaken countervailing currency interventions to support their currencies, but their efforts seem insufficient.

“Foreign currency intervention will only help slow the decline in Asian assets, not stop it,” said Mitul Kotecha, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities in Singapore. – U.S. rate hikes, a stronger dollar and relatively low real rates in the region suggest the pressure will continue in the coming weeks.”

Some exception to the rule was South Korea, where the authorities’ intervention was relatively more successful as 3-year bonds rose after the central bank said it would buy government debt.

Earlier, we reported that the number of detected COVID-19 cases in the world exceeded 616.6 million.

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The Fed has lost its credibility. What is the Fed doing right now? 

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According to Mohamed El-Erian, the sell-off in the stock market after the Fed’s recent interest rate hike indicates a loss of confidence in the Fed, which increases the risk of economic problems as Fed policy tightening continues, writes Business Insider. What is the Fed doing right now?

The economist now expects that the Fed’s policies will cause additional collateral damage in an attempt to meet its inflation target.

What is the Fed doing with interest rates?

El-Erian voiced his views Wednesday, warning that the Fed’s failure to raise inflation to the target this year would signal a loss of market confidence and a growing market belief that a U.S. recession could not be avoided at the price of “little blood.

The Fed chief warned that fighting rising prices would “bring some pain” to Americans by slowing down hiring and making mortgages and credit cards more expensive. After his press conference, the S&P 500 stock index fell 3.8 percent over the past 7 days.

The Fed was late in raising interest rates in an attempt to tame skyrocketing prices, El-Erian believes, for it initially fueled the 2021 bubble by keeping rates low even as inflation began to rise steadily.

Earlier we reported that the U.S. president’s administration is concerned about the tax cuts in the U.K.

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