Economy

Fed rate cuts come into view as inflation retreats

Published

4 months ago

December 23, 2023

Fed rate cuts come into view as inflation retreats

By Ann Saphir

(Reuters) -Federal Reserve policymakers are set to start the new year with fresh evidence that their 2022-2023 interest-rate hike campaign put U.S. price pressures firmly in retreat, with data on Friday showing that by some key measures inflation is now at or below their 2% goal.

Traders broke out the champagne after a government report showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index fell 0.1% in November from October, responding to the first decline on that measure since April 2020 by boosting bets not only that the Fed will begin reducing borrowing costs in March but will continue to cut them throughout the year.

Futures contracts tied to the Fed’s policy rate are now pricing an end-of-year benchmark rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range, 1.75 percentage points below the current level.

Analysts caution that Fed policymakers themselves may not be quite as euphoric, noting that much of the decline in November came from falling goods prices that is unlikely to continue, at least at the same pace. Rent inflation is still running high, though it is forecast to recede in coming months.

“The more benign inflation data is certainly something to celebrate, but there is some turbulence ahead in the Q1 inflation readings that I think Fed officials will want to get through before turning the focus squarely to rate cuts,” wrote Inflation Insights’ Omair Sharif. “Fed officials will want to see a few reports with softer shelter data to gain confidence that they can move on to rate cuts.”

Last week the Fed kept its policy rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for a third straight month, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that with the rate-hike campaign that began in March 2022 likely over, policymakers would next turn to a debate over the timing of rate cuts.

With Friday’s data confirming a retreat in inflation, that debate may need to rev up quickly in the new year to prevent policy from becoming overly tight and turning a cooling labor market into one in freefall, analysts said.

Still, said KPMG Economics’ Diane Swonk, “We see Fed officials as hesitant to ease rates so soon for fear of backtracking on the hard-won fight against inflation.”

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

4 months ago

December 26, 2023

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.

The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.

Economy

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

Published

4 months ago

December 25, 2023

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.

With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.

China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.

The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.

“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.

The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.

($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

4 months ago

December 25, 2023

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.