Economy
Fed’s Bowman says more US rate hikes likely will be needed
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman poses at a conference on monetary policy at The Hoover Institution in Palo Alto, California, U.S., May 3, 2019. REUTES/Ann Saphir/File Photo
(Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely need to raise interest rates further to bring down inflation, Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday.
Bowman said she supported the Fed’s quarter-point increase in interest rates last month, given still-high inflation, strong consumer spending, a rebound in the housing market and a labor market that is helping to feed higher prices.
“I also expect that additional rate increases will likely be needed to get inflation on a path down to the FOMC’s 2 percent target,” she said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Kansas Bankers Association, referring to the Fed’s rate-setting panel, the Federal Open Market Committee.
Monetary policy is not on a “preset course,” she also said, and data will drive future decisions.
“We should remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting if the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled.”
Bowman has frequently expressed views that are more hawkish than some of her colleagues.
In forecasts published in June, most Fed policymakers expected to end the year with the Fed policy rate at 5.6%, one quarter-point hike above the setting established at the Fed’s late-July meeting.
Bowman’s use of the plural “rate increases” in her remarks on Saturday indicates she thinks the Fed will need to go higher than that.
After the most recent rate hike, Fed Chair Jerome Powell left the door open to another increase in September, but also signaled that cooler data could allow a pause.
Bowman noted some progress on inflation, which by the widely followed consumer price index slowed to a 3% annual rate in June, down from 9% in the middle of last year.
“The recent lower inflation reading was positive, but I will be looking for consistent evidence that inflation is on a meaningful path down toward our 2 percent goal as I consider further rate increases and how long the federal funds rate will need to remain at a restrictive level,” she said.
“I will also be watching for signs of slowing in consumer spending and signs that labor market conditions are loosening.”
The Labor Department’s monthly job market report on Friday showed hiring slowed in June, but unemployment, at 3.5%, remains slow, and Bowman noted there are still many more available jobs than there are workers to fill those jobs.
Banks also continue to increase lending to households and businesses, albeit at a slower pace than when interest rates were lower, with no sharp contraction of credit since the banking turmoil in March, she said.
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.
With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.
China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.
The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.
“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.
The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.
($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
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