Is global recession coming – is it really? Analysts at Goldman Sachs are confident that expectations of an imminent recession in the world are not justified. Experts conclude that next year the decline in the global economy will not occur, despite the tightening of monetary policy by central banks, reports Bloomberg.
Goldman Sachs studied nine countries that were among the first to introduce tightening, mostly emerging economies in Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and New Zealand. None of them showed signs of a recession, given that their labor markets remained flat. These economies are supported primarily by rising consumer credit and unmet labor demand. Negative factors remain the overheated labor market and weakening exchange rates of national currencies.
The agency stressed that while it is too early to tell whether economies will eventually contract, they may still avoid a hard landing.
“Their resilience supports our prediction that no major economy will enter a monetary policy-induced recession within the next year,” the experts summarized.
On the other hand, the threat of a recession is still relevant for countries in Europe. It is expected that in the next quarters, due to the cancellation of many coronavirus restrictions, there will be an increase in demand. but it will be restrained by the pressure of daily spending on consumer income due to rising prices for energy.
Earlier, we reported that Britain has allowed for an 18.6% inflation rate in the country in January 2023.
Current inflation in Argentina could reach a record 100% by the end of the year
Current inflation in Argentina reached 82.2% in September, the highest since the Great Depression, and may reach 100% by the end of the year.
Why is inflation in Argentina so high?
According to the publication, inflation in the country by the end of 2022 could reach 100%, several times higher than in other Latin American countries. Experts estimate that during the 33 months of President Fernandez’s cabinet, prices in the country rose by 243.6 percent.
“The government of Argentine President Alberto Fernández has once again rebuked entrepreneurs for chasing excessive profits in a situation where the country’s inflation – the worst since the Great Depression 30 years ago – was 82.2 percent this year by the end of September, according to independent economists,” the publication noted.
According to the famous Argentine sociologist Augustine Salvia, after the elections and the organization of public works in the summer the economy went into a recession, as more and more people began to work without an employment contract. At the same time, the situation at the end of the fourth quarter could be even worse.
Earlier, we reported that OPEC+ extended the deal until 2024 and reduced the oil production quota by 2 million bpd.
The U.S. will not sell strategic reserve oil after the end of Biden’s executive order
The U.S. administration is not considering an option for strategic reserve oil after the departure of President Joe Biden’s executive order. This was stated by White House press secretary Karin Jean-Pierre at a briefing.
“We’re not considering a new sale of strategic reserve oil beyond the one you’re talking about. I have nothing more to say, we’re not going to consider new sales,” Jean-Pierre said.
According to her, the U.S. will continue to fight inflation. However, no action will be taken now with the strategic reserves. Because this could lower oil reserve levels.
In late March, Biden signed an executive order that required the U.S. Energy Department to sell 1 million barrels of oil a day for six months from the strategic reserve for the sake of reducing gasoline prices in the country.
On Oct. 1, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm asked U.S. energy companies to lower fuel prices and rebuild their reserves.
Before that, global oil prices on September 28 began to decline by more than 1% in the morning amid information about a sharp increase in fuel stocks in the United States.
Earlier we reported that French enterprises were obliged to determine their own measures to save energy.
OPEC+ extended the deal until 2024 and reduced OPEC+ oil production quota by 2 million bpd
The OPEC+ alliance has agreed to extend the deal on oil production volumes until December 31, 2023. The daily OPEC+ oil production quota for the member countries of the commodity association will be reduced by 2 million barrels, according to a press release from the organization.
“Participating countries have decided to extend the declaration of cooperation until December 31, 2023 and to adjust total production downward by 2 million bpd from the required production levels in August 2022,” the statement said.
The reduction in daily production levels of oil will begin in November 2022. The alliance also stressed the importance of sticking to the new terms of the deal for each member of the cartel.
Is OPEC+ cutting oil production?
The new requirements were conditioned by the state of general uncertainty in the world energy market as well as the risks of a recession in the global economy in the light of international sanctions against one of the leaders in oil exports, Russia.
On October 5, the EUobserver reported that the eighth package of the EU’s anti-Russian sanctions will take effect on the sixth of this month. The list of restrictions will include: the introduction of price caps on oil transported by sea, as well as measures against exports of steel and timber industries. The total damage is estimated at up to €7 billion.
Earlier we reported that China earns hundreds of millions of dollars from reselling LNG from the US to European companies.
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