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Morgan Stanley upgrades India to “standout overweight” amid strong economic growth

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Morgan Stanley upgrades India to
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In a move that underscores India’s growing economic strength, Wall Street firm Morgan Stanley has upgraded the country to “standout overweight”. The decision acknowledges the robustness of India’s macro-stability setup and its shift towards manufacturing under the China Plus One strategy, which was implemented in 2021-2022.

Morgan Stanley’s upgrade comes as India’s economic growth, primarily driven by its burgeoning manufacturing sector, continues to garner attention from international economists and brokerages. Amidst the evolving dynamics of a multipolar world, India has emerged as Morgan Stanley’s top pick among emerging markets.

This upgrade has sparked a surge in domestic capital inflows, stimulating both Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and portfolio investments. Furthermore, Indian equities have earned the highest spot in Morgan Stanley’s global equity investment ranking with a score of 68, outpacing Singapore, Greece, Mexico, and Poland.

From 2021 to October 2022, India has led the index by 45.5% in USD terms. This performance is indicative of India’s strong position within the global economy and its potential for continued growth.

Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley predicts that India’s relative Earnings Per Share (EPS) will substantially outperform other emerging markets. This forecast is based on India’s low correlation and revenue dependence on the US and China. The firm’s assessment suggests that India’s economic trajectory is on an upward trend, bolstered by its robust macro-stability setup capable of sustaining a higher real rate environment.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

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Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.

The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.

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Economy

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

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China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.

With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.

China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.

The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.

“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.

The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.

($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)

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Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

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Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.

The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.

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