Economy
Trudeau expects Canadian interest rates to come down by mid 2024
© Reuters. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau holds a press conference on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York, U.S., September 21, 2023 as tensions escalate following Canada’s announcement that it was “actively pursuing credible allegations” linking Indian gov
(Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expects interest rates are going to start coming down by the middle of next year, in-line with recent Reuters poll estimates, though the latest economic data has turned the central bank more hawkish.
“We know things are going to start getting better. Inflation is coming down. We think interest rates are going to start coming down probably middle of next year,” Trudeau told the New York Times in an interview just before returning to Canada after attending the United Nations General Assembly.
Trudeau’s popularity as measured by opinion polls has dropped as Canadians deal with a cost-of-living crisis, sparked by the central bank’s record pace of interest rate increases to tame inflation.
While the inflation has eased from its peak, the August CPI rose to 4% coming in above the central bank’s 2% target, and the Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that rates may not be high enough.
A majority of economists, 24 of 34, polled between Aug. 24-30 expect the BoC to keep its policy rate at the current level of 5% or higher until at least the end of March 2024. The median shows 50 basis points worth of cuts by the end of June next year, in line with expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Trudeau has waded into a sensitive monetary policy debate and past comments on interest rates by his government and other provincial politicians have raised questions about the independence of the central bank.
Earlier in the month, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland defended the BoC’s independence after her comments that the central bank’s decision to hold the interest rate steady “is welcome relief for Canadians” raised concerns to the contrary.
The Prime Minister’s Office declined to comment on Saturday on Trudeau’s remark.
The Conservative Party Leader, Pierre Poilievre, has blamed the Trudeau government’s massive spending during the pandemic for the inflation and the affordability crisis.
“People are mad at governments because things aren’t going all that well and people are worried. So, yeah, it’s a tough time,” Trudeau told the paper.
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.
With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.
China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.
The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.
“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.
The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.
($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo
MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.
The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.
Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.
Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.
“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.
The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.
The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.
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