Connect with us
  • tg

Economy

Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast for 2023 revised to 5% amid challenging global outlook

letizo News

Published

on

Vietnam's GDP growth forecast for 2023 revised to 5% amid challenging global outlook

Standard Chartered (OTC:) Bank has lowered Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 5.4% to a challenging 5%, according to the bank’s economist Tim Leelahaphan. This revision is attributed to disappointing year-to-date data and a less optimistic global outlook. Despite this, the bank maintains a positive forecast for Vietnam’s economy in 2024, predicting a GDP growth of 6.7%.

The bank emphasizes the significance of swift GDP growth and infrastructure development for reigniting foreign direct investment inflows. While macroeconomic indicators are showing signs of recovery, bolstered by strong retail sales, rising inflation could potentially lead to financial instability. The inflation forecast for 2023 has been adjusted upwards from 2.8% to 3.4%, with Q4 inflation expected at 4.3%.

Despite these challenges, Standard Chartered predicts an increase in the current account surplus from 2% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024. The State Bank of Vietnam is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points in Q4 2024 to counteract inflationary pressures, with rates predicted to remain stable in 2025.

The Prime Minister of Vietnam, Pham Minh Chinh, has set a GDP growth target just over 5% for 2023, lower than the National Assembly’s approved target of 6.5%. He also aims to cap inflation at 4% for the same year.

In addition to Standard Chartered’s revisions, United Overseas Bank (OTC:) (UOB) has also reduced Vietnam’s full-year growth forecast to 5% from the previous estimate of 5.2%. Meanwhile, Michael Kokalari of VinaCapital anticipates less than 5% GDP growth in 2023 due to lower demand for Vietnamese products, attributing this to an over-accumulation of inventories by US retailers during COVID supply-chain disruptions and the absence of a post-COVID spending boom. Despite this, Kokalari remains optimistic about a manufacturing-driven recovery in 2024.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

letizo News

Published

on

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.

The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.

Continue Reading

Economy

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

letizo News

Published

on

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.

With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.

China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.

The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.

“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.

The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.

($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)

Continue Reading

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

letizo News

Published

on

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC
© Reuters. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a news conference in Moscow, Russia June 14, 2019. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File Photo

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.

The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.

Continue Reading

Trending

©2021-2024 Letizo All Rights Reserved