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Asia FX muted, dollar at 3-week high as rate-cut uncertainty persists

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Asia FX muted, dollar at 3-week high as rate-cut uncertainty persists
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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies kept to a flat-to-low range on Thursday, while uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts in 2024 saw the dollar rebound to a three-week high. 

The provided little clarity on the bank’s plans for rate cuts this year, which further unsettled risk appetite after a weak start to 2024 for financial markets.

Asian currencies remained particularly sensitive to rate-cut anxiety, after having logged a largely dismal performance in 2023 on headwinds from higher interest rates. While regional currencies saw some relief towards the end of the year, the recovery was now on ice. 

The moved little as local markets reopened after an extended new year’s holiday. Purchasing managers index (PMI) data showed that Japanese economic activity remained fragile, as the remained in contraction in December.

Sentiment towards Japan was also dented by a devastating earthquake in central Japan, which killed scores of people and disrupted train lines in the region. 

The rose 0.2%, although further gains were held back by showing the country’s service sector remained in contraction in December. 

Chinese yuan creeps lower, Fitch downgrades national asset managers 

The fell 0.1% on Thursday, with further losses in the currency held back by a substantially stronger-than-expected midpoint fix by the People’s Bank.

Sentiment towards China was dealt a fresh blow by Fitch , and placing three of them on watch for more cuts. 

The ratings agency cited increased headwinds for the firms from a property market slump, and also raised concerns over the government’s ability to provide financial support to the four. 

The four play a key role in maintaining Chinese lending stability by snapping up non-performing assets from the open market, with their downgrade potentially heralding more headwinds for the Chinese economy. 

A private survey showing improved growth in China’s did little to shore up sentiment.

The yuan was also among the worst-performing Asian currencies in 2023, as a post-COVID economic rebound fizzled out, while the PBOC cut interest rates further into record-low territory. 

Broader Asian currencies were flat on Thursday, after a largely underwhelming performance in 2023. The traded sideways, while the remained in sight of record lows. PMI data showed India’s grew less than expected in December, but still remained well within in expansion territory. 

Dollar rebounds to 3-week high, rate-cut uncertainty in play 

The and moved little in Asian trade on Thursday, but remained in sight of a three-week high hit in the prior session.

The greenback marked a sharp recovery from five-month lows hit at the end of 2023, as markets second-guessed the timing of the Fed’s planned interest rate cuts.

The minutes of the Fed’s December meeting provided little clarity on the cuts, as policymakers noted progress against inflation, but still highlighted risks to the American economy. 

data due on Friday is also expected to factor into the Fed’s outlook on rate cuts, with the still showing market expectations largely geared towards a 25 basis point reduction in March. 

High U.S. interest rates saw Asian currencies log an underwhelming performance in 2023. But this trend is likely to change as the Fed begins trimming rates in 2024. 

Forex

Asia FX weakens as dollar recovers amid waning rate cut cheer

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Investing.com– Most Asian currencies retreated on Friday as the dollar recovered a measure of recent losses after a string of Federal Reserve officials warned that bets on interest rate cuts may be premature. 

While the greenback was still headed for some weekly losses, it was trading well above a one-month low hit on Thursday. U.S. Treasury yields also rebounded, pressuring risk-driven markets.

Regional factors also weighed on Asian currencies, as economic data from China and Japan underwhelmed.

Chinese yuan weak amid mixed economic prints 

The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1%, moving back to six-month highs above 7.22.

Economic readings from the country continued to offer middling signals on an economic recovery. Data on Friday showed grew more than expected in April.

But other readings showed growth in slowed sharply, while a decline in Chinese accelerated last month. 

Chinese also grew less than expected in April, while fell from a seven-month high, but still remained relatively high. 

The readings presented a mixed outlook for Asia’s biggest economy. They also came after the U.S. imposed higher tariffs on key Chinese industries, sparking fears of a reignited trade war between Beijing and Washington. 

Concerns over China weighed on other currencies with trade exposure to the country. The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2%, while the South Korean won’s pair rose 0.7%. 

The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1% after the island state’s grew at a slower-than-expected pace in April, and also contracted sharply from last year. 

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Weakness in the Japanese yen deepened after weaker-than-expected gross domestic product data for the first quarter. The pair rose 0.3% and was close to breaking above 156, extending sharp overnight gains.

Dollar recoups most weekly losses as Fed downplays rate cuts 

The and rose 0.2% each in Asian trade, extending an overnight rebound from one-month lows.

The dollar’s recovery came as several Fed officials, specifically members of the bank’s rate-setting committee, said that they needed much more confidence that inflation was coming down, beyond some easing inflation in April.

This saw traders scale back bets on a September rate cut, albeit slightly, according to the . 

Still, the dollar was set to lose about 0.7% this week, following some softer-than-expected data for April. The reading, coupled with soft data pushed up hopes that inflation will cool in the coming months.

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Dollar steadies, but on track for sharp weekly loss

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Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher in European trade Friday, but was on track for a hefty weekly fall after cooling inflation and weak retail sales brought Federal Reserve rate cuts back into focus. 

At 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% higher at 104.580, marginally above a five-week low just below 104 seen earlier this week.

Dollar steadies after hawkish Fed speak

The dollar has recovered to a degree as several Fed officials, specifically members of the bank’s rate-setting committee, said that they needed much more confidence that inflation was coming down, beyond some easing inflation in April.

“I now believe that it will take longer to reach our 2% goal than I previously thought,” St. Louis Federal Reserve president Loretta Mester said on Thursday, adding that further monitoring of incoming data will be needed. 

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams agreed with this view. 

“I don’t see any indicators now telling me … there’s a reason to change the stance of monetary policy now, and I don’t expect that, I don’t expect to get that greater confidence that we need to see on inflation progress towards a 2% goal in the very near term,” Williams said.

However, the dollar is still on course for a weekly loss of around 0.7% after the milder than expected U.S. data raised expectations the will deliver two interest rate cuts this year, probably starting in September.

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U.S. were also flat in April and softer-than-expected, and manufacturing output unexpectedly fell.

“Our view for the near term remains that we could see a further stabilisation in USD crosses as markets await the next key data input: April core PCE on 31 May,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Euro slips ahead of CPI release

In Europe, traded 0.1% lower to 1.0860, having traded as high as 1.0895 in the wake of U.S. inflation release, but the single currency is still up around 0.9% on the dollar this week.

The final reading of the is due later in the session, and is expected to show inflation rose by 2.4% on an annual basis in April.

The is widely expected to cut interest rates in June, but traders remain unsure of how many more cuts, if any, the central bank will agree to over the course of the rest of the year.

Traders have priced in 70 basis points of ECB cuts this year – a lot more than the just under 50 bps of easing priced in for the Fed.

fell 0.1% to 1.2658, but is still on track for gains of around 1% this week.

The Bank of England is also expected to cut rates from a 16-year high this summer, but volatility is likely to be limited ahead of the release of key U.K. inflation figures next week.

Yen slips after weak Japanese GDP data

In Asia, rose 0.3% to 155.87, close to breaking above 156, after weaker-than-expected Japanese data for the first quarter. 

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traded 0.1% higher at 7.2209, moving back to six-month highs above 7.22 after data earlier Friday showed grew more than expected in April, but growth in slowed sharply, while a decline in Chinese house prices accelerated last month.

 

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ING anticipates EUR/GBP rise as BoE rate cut bets increase

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Broker ING noted the potential downside risks for the British pound, noting the currency’s recent decline from its peak against the euro. The GBP’s sensitivity to the performance of US equities was highlighted as a contributing factor to its movement.

The firm also observed a decrease in volatility for the pair as the market anticipates the release of key Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures in the UK scheduled for next week.

ING’s UK economist suggests that there may be a dovish tilt in expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy. The firm maintains a favorable outlook on the possibility of the EUR/GBP pair rising, as market participants might increase their wagers on a potential interest rate cut by the BoE in June.

The British financial markets were focused on a speech delivered by Catherine Mann of the BoE, who is regarded as the most hawkish member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

This event followed comments made by Megan Greene, who recently shared a cautiously optimistic perspective on inflation, mirroring sentiments expressed by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey at the last meeting.

ING’s commentary comes as investors and analysts closely watch the central bank’s moves, which could significantly influence currency valuations. The anticipation of UK CPI data and the BoE’s potential response are key factors in the firm’s analysis of the GBP’s trajectory.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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