Forex
Dollar edges higher ahead of payrolls release; euro slips lower
Investing.com – The U.S. dollar edged higher Friday, continuing October’s strength, ahead of the release of the widely-watched payrolls report.
At 05:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, rose 0.1% to 104.025, after gains of well over 2% last month.
Dollar awaits payrolls release
Data released on Thursday showed that inflation by the Fed’s targeted measure, the year-over-year increase in the , came in at 2.1% in September, down from an upwardly revised 2.3% in August, and close to the Fed’s 2.0% target.
Attention now turns to the US jobs report for October, due later in the session.
Economists are estimating that slipped to 106,000, down from 254,000 in the prior month, while the is tipped to match August’s pace of 4.1%. growth is also seen slowing to 0.3% on a month-on-month basis.
However, these numbers could be open to volatility given the potential impact of recent devastating hurricanes and ongoing labor actions.
The is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point next week, and there would have to be a major surprise from the payrolls release given futures contracts put the chances of a 25 basis point cut next week at 94.7%.
“We expect a slightly negative impact on the dollar, as some of the strength associated with the previous jobs report is priced out and markets may push the Fed pricing back to 50bp of easing by year-end,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
Also of interest has been the run-up to the presidential election on Tuesday, with the dollar benefiting from trades betting Republican candidate Donald Trump will win.
However, the race with Vice President Kamala Harris appears very close, and thus a victory by the Democrat could spark a rash of trading unwinds.
Caution over ECB rate cuts?
In Europe, traded 0.2% lower at 1.0861, handing back some of the previous session’s euro gains after data showed that the eurozone’s accelerated more than expected in October, bolstering the case for caution in European Central Bank interest rate cuts.
The has cut interest rates three times this year, and is widely expected to cut again as the year draws to an end.
“EUR/USD is starting to look a bit expensive in the upper half of the 1.08-1.09 range, and barring a US jobs data-induced push today, we favour some depreciation in the pair into US Election Day, with a move back to 1.0800 as being completely in line with a wide rate differential in favour of USD,” ING added.
rose 0.1% to 1.2917, with traders still digesting the latest UK budget, with British finance minister Rachel Reeves launching massive tax increases.
“Our view is that sterling can drop a bit further as the readjustment to higher bond supply runs its course, but with GBP short-term swap rates having received a lift from the BoE repricing (only one cut expected in 2024 now), rate differentials can soon offer a floor to the pound,” ING added.
Yen slips lower
rose 0.5% to 152.72, with the yen handing back earlier gains after the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates but said risks around the U.S. economy were somewhat subsiding.
Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks were seen as less dovish than those made before the meeting that the BOJ could “afford to spend time” scrutinising the fallout from risks such as U.S. economic uncertainties.
rose 0.1% to 7.1242, despite China’s manufacturing activity swinging back to growth in October, a private-sector survey showed on Friday.
The rose to 50.3, largely matching the official PMI released earlier in the week.
Investing.com – The US dollar rose in thin holiday-impacted trade Tuesday, retaining recent strength as traders prepared for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
At 04:25 ET (09:25 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 107.905, near the recently hit two-year high.
Dollar remains in demand
The dollar has been in demand since the Federal Reserve outlined a hawkish outlook for its interest rates after its last policy meeting of the year last week, projecting just two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
In fact, markets are now pricing in just about 35 basis points of easing for 2025, which has in turn sent US Treasury yields surging, boosting the dollar.
The two-year Treasury yield last stood at 4.34%, while the benchmark 10-year yield steadied near a seven-month high at 4.59%.
“We think this hawkish re-tuning of the Fed’s communication will lay the foundation for sustained dollar strengthening into the new year,” said analysts at ING,in a note.
Trading volumes are likely to thin out as the year-end approaches, with this trading week shortened by the festive period.
Euro near to two-year low
In Europe, fell 0.1% to 1.0396, near a two-year low, with the set to cut interest rates more rapidly than its US rival as the eurozone struggles to record any growth.
The ECB lowered its key rate earlier this month for the fourth time this year, and President Christine Lagarde said earlier this week that the eurozone was getting “very close” to reaching the central bank’s medium-term inflation goal.
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further,” Lagarde said in a speech in Vilnius.
Inflation in the eurozone was 2.3% last month and the ECB expects it to settle at its 2% target next year.
traded largely flat at 1.2531, with sterling showing signs of weakness after data showed that Britain’s economy failed to grow in the third quarter, and with Bank of England policymakers voting 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold last week, a more dovish split than expected.
Bank of Japan stance in focus
In Asia, fell 0.1% to 157.03, after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
edged 0.1% higher to 7.3021, remaining close to a one-year high as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
Investing.com– Most Asian currencies moved in a tight range on Tuesday, while the dollar extended overnight gains as traders positioned for a slower pace of interest rate cuts in the coming year.
Trading volumes were muted before the Christmas break, while most regional currencies were nursing steep losses against the greenback for the year.
Asian currencies weakened sharply last week after the Federal Reserve effectively halved its outlook for rate cuts in 2025, citing concerns over sticky U.S. inflation.
Dollar near 2-year high on hawkish rate outlook
The and both rose about 0.1% in Asian trade, extending overnight gains and coming back in sight of a two-year high hit last week.
While the greenback did see some weakness after data read lower than expected for November, this was largely offset by traders dialing back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025.
The Fed signaled only two rate cuts in the coming year, less than prior forecasts of four.
Higher U.S. rates diminish the appeal of risk-driven Asian markets, limiting the amount of capital flowing into the region and pressuring regional markets.
Asia FX pressured by sticky US rate outlook
Most Asian currencies weakened in recent sessions on the prospect of slower rate cuts in the U.S., while uncertainty over local monetary policy and slowing economic growth also weighed.
The Japanese yen’s pair fell 0.1% on Tuesday after rising as high as 158 yen in recent sessions, after the Bank of Japan signaled that it will take its time to consider more interest rate hikes.
The Australian dollar’s pair fell 0.2% after the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s December meeting showed policymakers saw an eventual easing in monetary policy, citing some progress in bringing down inflation. But they still flagged potential upside risks for inflation.
The Chinese yuan’s pair rose 0.1% and remained close to a one-year high, as the prospect of more fiscal spending and looser monetary conditions in the coming year weighed on the currency.
Beijing signaled that it will ramp up fiscal spending in 2025 to support slowing economic growth.
The Singapore dollar’s pair rose 0.1%, while the Indian rupee’s pair rose 0.1% after hitting record highs above 85 rupees.
Investing.com — The dollar has surged past its post-2022 range, buoyed by U.S. economic exceptionalism, a widening interest rate gap, and elevated tariffs, setting the stage for further gains next year.
“Our base case is that the dollar will make some further headway next year as the US continues to outperform, the interest rate gap between the US and other G10 economies widens a little further, and the Trump administration brings in higher US tariffs,” Capital Economics said in a recent note.
The bullish outlook on the greenback comes in the wake of the dollar breaking above its post-2022 trading range, reflecting renewed confidence among investors driven by robust U.S. economic data and policy expectations.
A key risk to the upside call on the dollar is a potential economic rebound in the rest of the world, similar to what occurred in 2016, Capital Economics noted.
Following the 2016 U.S. election, economic activity in the rest of the world rebounded, while Trump’s tax cuts didn’t materialize until the end of 2017, and the Fed took a more dovish path than discounted, resulting in a 10% drop in the DXY on the year, which was its “worst calendar year performance in the past two decades,” it added.
While expectations for a recovery in Europe and Asia seem far off, a positive surprise for global growth “should be ruled out”, Capital Economics said.
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