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Commodities

Brent oil fell below $72 a barrel for the first time since March 20

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Brent crude oil down

The price of July futures on Brent crude oil fell by 4.5%, to $71.93 a barrel, the first time since March 20, having fallen below $72. June WTI futures are down 4.84% to $68.19 a barrel.

Markets continue to assess the prospects for oil demand amid weaker economic data. Thus, earlier this week, statistics were published from China, one of the largest importers and consumers of oil. China’s manufacturing PMI fell below neutral to 49.2 points from 51.9 points in March, while non-manufacturing PMI was 56.4 points from 58.2 points a month earlier.

“There is little fresh fundamental data to justify a sell-off, although investors seem increasingly nervous about the macroeconomic outlook and its implications for oil demand,” ING commodity strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey are quoted by MarketWatch as saying.

Earlier, we reported that US WTI crude oil prices declined for the second week in a row.

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Commodities

SocGen explains why gold is the ultimate ‘unknown unknown’ commodity

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Investing.com — Gold has recently performed as expected leading up to the U.S. election, but Societe Generale (OTC:) analysts suggest the precious metal may take a breather in the near term. 

Despite this, they see robust long-term drivers that reinforce the yellow metal’s unique role in financial markets.

“Gold is the ultimate ‘unknown unknown’ commodity,” Societe Generale stated, explaining that its primary value lies in its role as a hedge against unforeseen and unpredictable risks. 

Unlike most commodities, gold’s market dynamics are not influenced by typical supply and demand fundamentals.

“It is broadly speaking neither seasonal in its supply nor in its demand and is often considered the least commodity-like commodity market,” the firm stated.

According to Societe Generale, gold’s limited industrial use sets it apart from other resources, emphasizing its status as a store of value with a unique monetary role. 

“It is this monetary role that makes gold an alternative to fiat currencies and a stable store of value in unstable times,” Societe Generale explained.

The bank highlighted several drivers supporting gold’s current bullish momentum: persistent fiscal profligacy in the U.S., potential reversals in interest rate policy, the weaponization of the U.S. dollar in sanctions enforcement, and escalating geopolitical risks.

They note that investor sentiment has shifted significantly, with money managers, central banks, and ETFs turning bullish on gold simultaneously over the last quarter. 

Societe Generale emphasized that “sentiment on gold has converged with few sellers in sight,” solidifying its appeal as a hedge in uncertain times.

While a temporary pause in gold’s rally may be imminent, the firm believes its fundamental strengths and role as a safeguard against “unknown unknowns” ensure its continued relevance in portfolios.

 

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Trump picks oil industry CEO Chris Wright as Energy Secretary

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President-elect Donald Trump said on Saturday that oil and gas industry executive Chris Wright, a staunch defender of fossil fuel use, would be his pick to lead the Department of Energy.

Wright is the founder and CEO of Liberty Energy, an oilfield services firm based in Denver. He is expected to support Trump’s plan to maximize production of oil and gas and to seek ways to boost generation of electricity, demand for which is rising for the first time in decades.

He is also likely to share Trump’s opposition to global cooperation on fighting climate change. Wright has called climate change activists alarmist and has likened efforts by Democrats to combat global warming to Soviet-style communism.

“There is no climate crisis, and we’re not in the midst of an energy transition, either,” Wright said in a video posted to his LinkedIn profile last year.

Wright, who does not have any political experience, has written extensively on the need for more fossil fuel production to lift people out of poverty.

He has stood out among oil and gas executives for his freewheeling style, and describes himself as a tech nerd.

Wright made a media splash in 2019 when he drank fracking fluid on camera to demonstrate it was not dangerous.

U.S. oil output hit the highest level any country has ever produced under Biden, and it is uncertain how much Wright and the incoming administration could boost that.

Most drilling decisions are driven by private companies working on land not owned by the federal government.

The Department of Energy handles U.S. energy diplomacy, administers the Strategic Petroleum Reserve – which Trump has said he wants to replenish – and runs grant and loan programs to advance energy technologies, such as the Loan Programs Office.

The secretary also oversees the aging U.S. nuclear weapons complex, nuclear energy waste disposal, and 17 national labs.

If confirmed by the Senate, Wright will replace Jennifer Granholm, a supporter of electric vehicles, emerging energy sources like geothermal power and a backer of carbon-free wind, solar and nuclear energy.

© Reuters. Liberty Oilfield Services Inc. CEO Chris Wright, New York, January 12, 2018. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

Wright will also likely be involved in permitting of electricity transmission and the expansion of nuclear power, an energy source that is popular with both Republicans and Democrats but which is expensive and complicated to permit.

Power demand in the United States is surging for the first time in two decades amid growth in artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and cryptocurrencies.

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Low crude oil inventories may support higher 2025 prices

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Investing.com — Low crude oil inventories are setting the stage for potential price increases in 2025, according to a recent note from Wells Fargo (NYSE:). 

Despite a flat performance this year, the bank said prices could rebound as global supply remains tight and economic conditions improve.

Wells Fargo points out that while crude oil prices have seen minimal change in 2024—just 2% lower since the year began—this has largely been due to “a host of uncertainties on global demand growth and weak economic conditions” that have kept prices under pressure. 

However, tight supply conditions mean that crude oil inventories are staying low, which, historically, has supported price increases. 

The bank explains, “When global inventories are low or moving lower, oil prices have tended to move higher.” Wells Fargo highlights that this trend of declining inventories is evident in recent months, suggesting that oil prices could soon rise in response.

Looking forward, Wells Fargo projects that an improved macroeconomic environment and increased demand growth in regions such as China could further bolster oil prices.

“Efforts by China to stabilize its property sector could lead to better overall demand growth for commodities and oil,” the note says. As demand picks up globally, Wells Fargo expects crude oil prices to respond accordingly.

For 2025, the bank forecasts West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to reach $85–$95 per barrel and to range from $90 to $100 per barrel. 

With these expectations, Wells Fargo remains favorable on the Energy sector within commodities, anticipating that low inventories combined with global economic recovery will underpin a positive outlook for crude oil prices in the coming year.

 

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