Economy

ECB nearing end of tightening cycle but final stretch remains

Published

11 months ago

June 1, 2023

The European Central Bank (ECB) has gone through most of its monetary policy tightening to bring inflation back to its medium-term target of 2%, though the cycle is not quite over yet, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday.

“A big part of the journey has been done but there is still the last stretch,” De Guindos told Spanish radio station RNE.

Shortly after his comments, ECB President Christine Lagarde said euro zone inflation remained too high, so further European Central Bank policy tightening was necessary.

The ECB has raised rates at its fastest pace on record over the past year to combat high inflation, slowing everything from the housing market to construction and consumer spending.

Many policymakers and financial investors expect another two ECB rate hikes in the coming months, taking the deposit rate to 3.75% by July, but the jury is out on whether further steps will be needed.

Though Guindos did not elaborate on the exact magnitude or number of potential interest rate hikes, he hinted at further hikes of 25 basis points.

“The size of the interest rate hikes and the number of interest rate hikes will depend on the data we receive (..) last month it was already 25 basis points, and so 25, I think, is the new norm,” he said.

De Guindos said recent inflation data from Spain, France, Italy and Germany were encouraging and showed inflation was coming down, even though the reduction in core inflation is slower.

“The trend is clearly pointing towards a slowdown but we are still very far away from our inflation target of around 2% in the medium term,” De Guindos said.

While headline inflation has come down sharply, underlying price growth is still accelerating on robust demand for services.

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

4 months ago

December 26, 2023

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia’s central bank will need two to three months to make sure that inflation is steadily declining before taking any decision on interest rate cuts, the bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina told RBC media on Sunday.

The central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 16% earlier in December, hiking for the fifth consecutive meeting in response to stubborn inflation, and suggested that its tightening cycle was nearly over.

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.

Economy

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

Published

4 months ago

December 25, 2023

China identifies second set of projects in $140 billion spending plan

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Workers walk past an under-construction area with completed office towers in the background, in Shenzhen’s Qianhai new district, Guangdong province, China August 25, 2023. REUTERS/David Kirton/File Photo

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s top planning body said on Saturday it had identified a second batch of public investment projects, including flood control and disaster relief programmes, under a bond issuance and investment plan announced in October to boost the economy.

With the latest tranche, China has now earmarked more than 800 billion yuan of its 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in additional government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, as it focuses on fiscal steps to shore up the flagging economy.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement on Saturday it had identified 9,600 projects with planned investment of more than 560 billion yuan.

China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is struggling to regain its footing post-COVID-19 as policymakers grapple with tepid consumer demand, weak exports, falling foreign investment and a deepening real estate crisis.

The 1 trillion yuan in additional bond issuance will widen China’s 2023 budget deficit ratio to around 3.8 percent from 3 percent, the state-run Xinhua news agency has said.

“Construction of the projects will improve China’s flood control system, emergency response mechanism and disaster relief capabilities, and better protect people’s lives and property, so it is very significant,” the NDRC said.

The agency said it will coordinate with other government bodies to make sure that funds are allocated speedily for investment and that high standards of quality are maintained in project construction.

($1 = 7.1315 renminbi)

Economy

Russian central bank says it needs months to make sure CPI falling before rate cuts -RBC

Published

4 months ago

December 25, 2023

Nabiullina said it was not yet clear when exactly the regulator would start cutting rates, however.

“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing, that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” she said.

Nabiullina said the bank was taking into account a wide range of indicators but primarily those that “characterize the stability of inflation”.

“This will take two or three months or more – it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” she said.

The bank will next convene to set its benchmark rate on Feb. 16.

The governor also said the bank should have started monetary policy tightening earlier than in July, when it embarked on the rate-hiking cycle.